The 2024 Summer Olympics in Paris, France are finally here! After Germany won the FIBA World Cup last summer, the field for this year’s Olympics is wide open. Twelve teams have qualified for the main stage of the tournament. Of those teams, eight will move on to the quarterfinals. The top two teams in each of the three groups, as well as the next two overall best teams, will advance. The United States enters as huge favorites, but needs to redeem themselves after a 4th place finish last summer. Full analysis and odds are available below.
FIBA Olympics Gold Medal Odds
United States Gold Medal Odds
Last summer’s disappointing 4th-place finish in the FIBA World Cup was an uncommon occurrence for a United States team with a history of basketball dominance. The roster has been changed quite a bit for the Olympics, but they remain at a disadvantage when it comes to experience playing as a unit. That being said, they looked pretty cohesive in their exhibition matches so far and will remain the outright favorite to take home the gold.
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Pick
United States (-400)
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Canada Gold Medal Odds
Canada has seen a notable rise in their national basketball product over the past few years. Their Olympics roster this time around will feature young stars in Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Jamal Murray, and RJ Barrett. After knocking off the United States in the FIBA World Cup’s 3rd-place game last summer, Canada has aspirations of claiming gold at the Olympics. They enter with the second-best odds for gold and are the favorites to win silver.
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Pick
Canada (+900)
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Serbia Gold Medal Odds
Serbia finished as the runner-up in last summer’s FIBA World Cup and is expected to compete for a medal once again. They have the top player in the world, Nikola Jokić, headlining a roster that also has Bogdan Bogdanović and Nikola Jokić. Serbia opens with a brutal matchup against the United States, before facing what should be winnable games against Puerto Rico and South Sudan. They enter as the favorites to take home the bronze.
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Pick
Serbia (+1100)
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France Gold Medal Odds
France is one of the most intriguing teams in this year’s Olympics tournament. Victor Wembanyama will be participating after not playing in last summer’s FIBA World Cup. The combination of Wembanyama and NBA defensive player of the year Rudy Gobert is a defensive nightmare for other teams. France was eliminated early on in last summer’s tournament, but skyrocketed to the fourth-best odds of winning gold with Wembanyama.
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Pick
France (+1400)
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Greece Gold Medal Odds
Greece made it out of the qualifying stages and into the main Olympics tournament after winning their region’s final. Giannis Antetokounmpo had an injury scare in the second game, but was able to return to the court and lead the way to victory. With Giannis on the floor, Greece is every bit capable of taking down any opposing team. That being said, the rest of the team needs to be at their absolute best to have a chance at medaling.
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Pick
Greece (+1800)
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Germany Gold Medal Odds
Germany stunned the world by winning last year’s FIBA World Cup, despite entering it as a pretty notable underdog. The excellent play of NBA veteran Dennis Schröder was the impetus, but the entire team had a part in their impressive success. Despite that, Germany remains an underdog to win the FIBA Olympics tournament, despite having a similar roster. They’ll be sleeper candidates to jump their ranking and earn another medal.
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Pick
Germany (+2200)
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Australia Gold Medal Odds
Australia, like France and Canada, has seen exponential growth in basketball over the past decade. The growing popularity of NBL Australia has led to more funding and an increase in talent in the sport. They’ll be aiming to showcase that in this summer’s Olympics. Australia boasts a squad with nine currently rostered NBA players, the highest total after the United States. They’re capable of making a much deeper run than expected.
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Pick
Australia (+4000)
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Spain Gold Medal Odds
Spain enters with the 8th best odds of 12 teams to win the gold, despite ranking as the #2 team globally. Their long odds are not indicative of the second-best team in the world, but rather a team that has faded significantly as of late. Spain had an unimpressive finish in last year’s FIBA World Cup, and looked shaky in the qualifying stage of this tournament. They managed to advance, but will need to improve on their single-digit victories.
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Spain (+8000)
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Brazil Gold Medal Odds
Brazil was the only team of the four that advanced from the qualifying stage to do so in an upset. Their win over Latvia earned them a spot in the main tournament, where they remain a solid underdog. That being said, Brazil’s offensive was notably impressive during the qualifying stage games. If they can maintain their momentum, it’s very possible they can make it out of the group stage. They will be relying on a roster with just one NBA player.
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Brazil (+15000)
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Japan Gold Medal Odds
Japan is a huge underdog in this tournament. It would be quite a surprise if they made it out of the group stage, and even more so if they medaled. That being said, Japan isn’t going to go down easy. Rui Hachimura, Yuta Watanabe, and Keisei Tominaga are all capable basketball players who have the ability to elevate what is already a well-coached team. It will be a tough path for Japan, but not an impossible one if they’re at their best.
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Pick
Japan (+45000)
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Puerto Rico Gold Medal Odds
Puerto Rico made it past the qualifying stages and into the main tournament after winning their regional group. As the 16th ranked team in FIBA, they face an uphill battle against a field of teams primarily ranked above them. Jose Alvarado will attempt to help them do the impossible and escape a group that includes the United States and Serbia. Puerto Rico will likely need to beat one of those two teams to advance to the quarterfinals.
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Pick
Puerto Rico (+50000)
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South Sudan Gold Medal Odds
South Sudan enters this tournament with the longest odds of any team. They claimed a spot in the Olympics after beating China and Angola in last summer’s FIBA World Cup, finishing as the top-ranked team in Africa. It will be their first appearance in an Olympics basketball tournament. South Sudan should be very proud of their accomplishments to reach this point. Any additional success from here on out will just be an added bonus.
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South Sudan (+55000)
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