In a perfect world the Armed Forces Bowl would go to a service academy school, in this case the Air Force Falcons (9-3) who are looking for their second straight double-digit win season. Getting this victory is not going to be easy though, as the Falcons find themselves over a FG underdog against the Baylor Bears (6-6), which isn’t saying an upset is not possible either.
Before Betting on the Armed Forces Bowl
There are two interesting intangibles about this game for Baylor. First, the game is being played on the campus of TCU in Ft. Worth, Texas, which is only about an hour North of Waco so there should be a lot of Bears fans in attendance. That being said, this is a Baylor squad that was 12-2 last season and played in an NY6 bowl beating #8 Ole Miss 21-7. Does this team consider the Armed Forces Bowl berth a disappointment?
Baylor lost a 1,601 yard rusher last year with Abram Smith declaring for the NFL draft (which proved to be a mistake as he was undrafted) and they also had a top 20 rush defense. That run defense has dipped to 44th in the nation this year, which could haunt them on Thursday night considering Air Force has the #1 rush attack in the country with an astounding 335.3 yards/game. Brad Roberts does a lot of that damage with 1,612 yards, the third most in the FBS.
Air Force also brings the #1 total defense into the Armed Forces Bowl, although some of that has to do with the Falcons also leading the country in time of possession (36 minutes per game) and opponents simply not getting the ball. Either way Baylor’s offense is far less impressive than they were last year, especially if they’ll have limited opportunities here.
Air Force vs Baylor NCAAF Offshore Betting Odds
| Offshore Sportsbook | Moneyline | Total | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|
| BetOnline | Air Force (2.48) | Baylor (1.59) | 43.5 | Air Force +3.5 (1.91) | Baylor -3.5 (1.91) |
| Bovada | Air Force (2.50) | Baylor (1.57) | 43 | Air Force +3.5 (1.91) | Baylor -3.5 (1.91) |
| BetUS | Air Force (2.45) | Baylor (1.61) | 43.5 | Air Force +3.5 (1.91) | Baylor -3.5 (1.91) |
| SportsBetting.ag | Air Force (2.48) | Baylor (1.59) | 43.5 | Air Force +3.5 (1.91) | Baylor -3.5 (1.91) |
| Pinnacle | Air Force (2.52) | Baylor (1.57) | 43 | Air Force +3.5 (1.95) | Baylor -3.5 (1.93) |
| MyBookie | Air Force (2.45) | Baylor (1.56) | 43.5 | Air Force +3.5 (1.91) | Baylor -3.5 (1.91) |
Armed Forces Bowl Prediction & Pick
Air Force had three losses this season but each was by 7 points or less. This is a team that has a style that just keeps games close, except when they are running all over teams like in a 32 point win over New Mexico, beating UNLV by 35 or topping Nevada by 28. Baylor was on the top of the mountain in an NY6 Bowl last year, and they’ll take this game way too lightly.
Pick: Air Force +3.5
