The surprising Tigers (86-76) meet the Astros (88-73) in Game 1 of the Wild Card series in Houston. Both teams have their ace starting pitchers on the mound, Tarik Skubal for the Tigers and Framber Valdez for the Astros.
Our pick for Game 1 is the Tigers money line of +131.
Astros Are Favored in Game 1
| Team | Run Line | Money Line | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tigers | +1.5 (-190) | +131 | O 6.5 (+100) |
| Astros | -1.5 (+165) | -143 | U 6.5 (-120) |
Astros Hitters Have Done Well Against Skubal
The Astros won the season series against the Tigers in 2024, 4 games to 2. The key, however, is how well the Astros performed against Tigers ace and the likely American League Cy Young Award winner Tarik Skubal.
The lefty Skubal started against the Astros on May 11, an 8-2 Tigers win. Despite that, the Astros have excellent numbers against the six-year veteran:
- Jose Altuve is 4 for 11 with 2 doubles and a home run
- Alex Bregman is 3 for 9 with 1 double and 1 triple
- Mauricio Dubon is 1 for 5 with a home run
- Jeremy Peña is 3 for 7 with a double and a home run
To be fair, much of their success was accrued before he altered his pitching repertoire to focus on a fastball and changeup with fewer sliders.
Valdez pitched 7 innings in a win over the Tigers on May 10 surrendering 6 hits and 2 runs over 7 innings. He struck out 4. None of the Tigers hitters have an extensive or positive history against the lefty Valdez.
Astros Have the Experience; Tigers Are Riding a Wave
This is the ninth time the Astros have been in the postseason in the past 10 years. They have won two World Series and the bulk of their roster has been there for one or both. They overcame a terrible start in 2024 and were 12 games below .500 in early May before turning things around and winning the AL West.
The Tigers were considering trading away Skubal at the end of July. Their hot streak from mid-August to the end of the season – helped by the Twins collapse – allowed the Tigers to capture the Wild Card. Given their youth, they could be overwhelmed by the experience or they could play a freewheeling style with nothing to lose against an annual contender.
The Tigers do not have a powerful offense. Game 1 is their best chance to put the Astros on their heels. In a short series, they have a genuine chance, particularly with the best pitcher in the American League in 2024 on the mound.
Prediction: Tigers Will Take Game 1
Skubal has carried the Tigers this far and will lead them to a win in the first game of their Wild Card series.
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