Best NFL Underdog Bets For Week 12

There are several on-paper mismatches on the NFL slate. Still, despite the visceral reaction that superior teams should easily defeat their weaker opponents, there are openings for upsets. Our best NFL underdog bets discuss games with point spreads that are too vast and one struggling team that is ripe to beat a rival.

Chicago Bears

The Bears started the season by winning four of their first six games. Then, an unfortunate bounce and some lax discipline led to a Hail Mary loss to Washington and sent them into a tailspin. They fired their offensive coordinator to try and improve rookie quarterback Caleb Williams’ production.

They have lost four straight overall and their playoff hopes are likely gone just as their head coach Matt Eberflus is on the chopping block.

Still, they are playing a historic rival and looked better offensively in their Week 11 loss to Green Bay with only a blocked field goal depriving them of a last-second win. This is a classic trap game for Minnesota with the Bears having a good chance to win outright.

New England Patriots

Although the Patriots are 3-8, they have put up a fight since head coach Jerod Mayo questioned their toughness. They dominated Chicago and then almost upset the Los Angeles Rams.

Miami had a strange tendency to beat the Bill Belichick-Tom Brady Patriots in Miami. Perhaps it’s time for role reversal with underdog New England putting a dent in Miami’s still flickering playoff hopes.

Despite Miami finding its footing since Tua Tagovailoa’s return from his latest concussion, New England is a 7-point underdog and they should keep the game closer than that.

Dallas Cowboys

Team talent level and projections aside, rivalries have a life of their own. This was evident in Thursday night’s snowy back-and-forth battle between the Browns and Steelers. Cleveland, 2-8 and playing out the string, came from behind to defeat the playoff-bound Steelers.

The same dynamic is in place with the Cowboys and Commanders. Dallas is severely hampered by injuries and trying to get by with an underwhelming backup quarterback, Cooper Rush.

Still, Washington has struggled of late, losing two straight. This might be the game where Dallas gives young Trey Lance a shot. A 10-point spread is high for a rivalry game and the Cowboys might make it interesting.

Tennessee Titans

While Houston is safely ensconced in first place in the AFC Central and they blew out the Cowboys in Week 11, they have been somewhat shaky. Tennessee’s biggest problem has been their quarterbacks Will Levis and Mason Rudolph. Apart from that, they have been moderately respectable, particularly on defense.

The one game in which Tennessee was embarrassed was against Detroit. That aside, they have been competitive. Given Houston’s two poor performances in losing to the Jets and Detroit before blowing out the Cowboys, a 9-point spread is inordinately high.

The only game in which an underdog should be considered for winning the game is Bears-Vikings.

Apart from that, the heavy underdogs could reasonably keep the games closer than anticipated.

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• Regular Season (NFL)