Best Underdog NFL Bets For Week 11

The NFL relies on the premise of “any given Sunday” for a reason. In short, it means that any team regardless of their record, talent level, and perception can beat any other team. Our best underdog NFL bets for Week 11 analyze three possible upsets on the slate.

New England Patriots

Just two weeks ago, Los Angeles fancied itself as a playoff contender when it decided to hold its fire at the NFL Trade Deadline and did not deal away marketable veterans including Cooper Kupp.

A 23-15 loss at home to Miami subtly disabused them of the notion of playoff glory. Now at 4-5, they travel to New England to face rebuilding New England (3-7).

The spread is relatively light. Despite the controversy swirling around the Patriots organization earlier in the season where it was a legitimate question whether rookie head coach Jerod Mayo would survive the season, the players have responded.

New England dominated Chicago in Week 10, winning 19-3. Young quarterback Drake Maye is getting his feet under him. The three-game winning streak that Los Angeles thought vaulted them into playoff contention looks like a fluke.

New England is getting better quickly and is an understated pick to leap into playoff contention in 2025.

Pittsburgh Steelers

These bitter AFC North rivals have battled for divisional supremacy for years. Baltimore is a scoring machine led by quarterback Lamar Jackson and rejuvenated running back/steamroller Derrick Henry. They have won seven of eight after starting the season 0-2.

Pittsburgh has relied on its fundamentals, strong defense, powerful running game, and fearless head coach Mike Tomlin. Changing quarterbacks from young Justin Fields to veteran Russell Wilson was initially met with skepticism and criticism, but it has been an inspired move.

The Steelers (7-2) do enough to keep their games close and pull them out late. With their ball-control offense and penchant for high-risk plays, they can take advantage of Baltimore’s poor pass defense and a surprisingly shaky star kicker Justin Tucker to win this game outright.

Indianapolis Colts

The oddsmakers are repeatedly making the Jets favorites and the Jets are repeatedly getting humiliated on the field.

Is there a blind spot at New York’s star power with a diminished Aaron Rodgers cosplaying general manager and bringing in players who, like him, might be past their sell-by date?

New York was demolished by Arizona 31-6 in Week 10 to fall to 3-7. It’s as if the waiting game of New York playing up to its perceived capabilities gives it one more week every week.

Indianapolis (4-6) is not playing particularly well and they just made another quarterback change two weeks after the last one. Veteran Joe Flacco replaced young Anthony Richardson after Richardson begged out of a game following a long scramble. Coach Shane Steichen announced it was for the remainder of the season, but that was short-lived.

Flacco was ineffective and looked every bit his 39 years. With an outside chance to make the playoffs, Indianapolis will start Richardson again.

To an extent, Indianapolis has been lucky in the games they’ve won. For the Jets, the lucky team is inevitably their opponent. That’s a good enough reason to expect an upset.

Best Underdog NFL Bets From Week 11

As the NFL is just past its midpoint, teams are jockeying for position or thinking about the future. With that, our best underdog NFL bets for Week 11 are the Patriots, Steelers, and Colts.

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• Regular Season (NFL)