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  • Buffalo held off the Ravens in a thrilling game on Sunday, defeating them 27-25.
  • The Chiefs took down the Texans 23-14, making their 7th straight AFC title game.
  • These teams last met on November 17, in a game that the Bills won at home 30-21.

Super Bowl LIX is close! The AFC Championship first showcases the fourth postseason battle between Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes. Our Bills vs Chiefs pick has Buffalo taking Kansas City down to the wire.

Bills and Allen Look to Topple Mahomes

The Bills managed to hold off a Ravens team with Lamar Jackson, Derrick Henry, and a stellar defense, fully earning the chance to challenge the Chiefs once again. As Buffalo aims to end their 31-year Super Bowl drought by returning to the big game, they’ll face the brutal task of eliminating Mahomes.

Buffalo will rely on their defense to stop Mahomes, particularly late in the game, after losing the previous three postseason matches against him. The Bills got the best of the Chiefs during the regular season, but had a home-field advantage they won’t have this time. They face a challenge in Kansas City.

QB Josh Allen only threw for 127 yards against the Ravens, and added just 20 on the ground. He was largely kept in check by a defense that ranks similar to Kansas City’s. If Allen wants to avoid falling to 0-4 against Mahomes in the postseason, he needs to bounce back in every single facet of this game.

Chiefs Aiming for Super Bowl Return

Kansas City’s win against Houston was never really in question. They confidently stopped the Texans on offense and posted a two-score victory. The Chiefs are aiming to become the first team in NFL history to win three consecutive Super Bowls. They are now just two victories away from achieving that goal.

The Chiefs only lost one game that Patrick Mahomes and the starters played in this year. That game was against the Bills, raising the stakes for this game even further. While his dynamic play remains exceptional, Mahomes has not had the strongest season by his standards. He’ll need to be at his best.

Aiding Mahomes in his quest for three straight Super Bowls is a Kansas City defense that is the best one Mahomes has ever had in his career. The factors that most often win it all are exceptional QBs and shutdown defenses. Boasting both of those, the Chiefs are once again a difficult team to eliminate.

Buffalo Bills vs Kansas City Chiefs Pick

I do think the Bills are capable of winning this game, and if everything goes right they just may. That being said, Josh Allen’s modest numbers against Baltimore’s defense are concerning. If Buffalo’s offense struggles to score consistently against the Chiefs, they will undoubtedly find themselves at the mercy of Patrick Mahomes in the fourth quarter. I won’t ever bet against Mahomes in the playoffs.

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