The Buffalo Bills (13-3) play the New England Patriots (3-13) for the second time in three weeks. Buffalo is the number 2 seed in the AFC playoff bracket. With one game to go, New England is in the pole position for the first pick in the 2025 NFL Draft. Our Bills vs Patriots prediction is for favored Buffalo to cover the 2-point spread.
Head-to-head, New England leads with a record of 78-51-1.
Offshore Odds: Buffalo is a Slight Favorite With Nothing to Play For
| Team | Spread | Money Line | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bills | -2 (-112) | -140 | O 37.5 (-110) |
| Patriots | +2 (-108) | +120 | U 37.5 (-110) |
Buffalo Rests Up for Its Wild Card Opponent
The Bills will play Denver, Miami, or Cincinnati in the Wild Card.
Coach Sean McDermott, quarterback Josh Allen, and the entire team will publicly say they don’t care who they play, but common sense says they and everyone else would prefer to avoid Joe Burrow and the Bengals.
Regardless, their Week 18 game against New England means nothing to them. Allen will start solely to continue his streak of having played in 114 consecutive games. He will likely be in for one series and pulled in favor of backup Mitch Trubisky.
Other key players who will see limited — if at all — action. That includes running back James Cook, wide receiver Amari Cooper, cornerback Rasul Douglas, defensive back Damar Hamlin, tight end Dalton Kincaid, and linebacker Matt Milano.
The Game Result Might Be More Important to the Patriots
Normally, when a game result is important, it relates to winning. For the Patriots, it does not.
They have the number one spot in the 2025 draft, which holds far greater value than winning a meaningless game in the last week of the season.
The Green Bay Packers won such a game in 1988 and it cost them Troy Aikman the 1989 draft. In retrospect, they recovered from it throughout the 1990s and probably made a bigger mistake by drafting Tony Mandarich second overall ahead of Barry Sanders, Derrick Thomas, and Deion Sanders, all Hall of Famers.
Because New England already has its quarterback in Drake Maye (and there isn’t a consensus star QB in the draft anyway), they have myriad options with that pick. Specifically, they can trade down, accrue more picks to try and speed their rebuild, and fill multiple holes.
Head coach Jerod Mayo plans to start Maye “if healthy.” He also said he is not thinking about the draft and the team wants to win this game.
That’s fine. It would also be stupid and self-destructive for him and the organization if he follows through on it.
Bills vs Patriots Prediction: Buffalo Will Cover the Spread With Its Backups
Bob Kraft has done very few dumb things in his time as Patriots owner. It’s unlikely he wants to start at age 83. Buffalo should win and cover the spread because New England should do everything in its power to lose.
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