In a clash between two Super Bowl hopefuls, the undefeated Kansas City Chiefs (9-0) visit the Buffalo Bills (8-2). Our Chiefs vs Bills prediction is for slightly favored Buffalo to deal Kansas City its first loss of the season and to cover the 1.5-point spread.
Contrary to Jake Paul vs Mike Tyson, the NFL has a real heavyweight collision: Chiefs vs. Bills.
Buffalo leads head-to-head with a record of 29-25-1. The teams have been jockeying for AFC supremacy for five years, with Kansas City coming out on top when it mattered most.
Offshore Odds: Buffalo is a 1.5-point Favorite at Home
| Team | Spread | Money Line | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chiefs | +1.5 (-108) | +111 | O 46 (-110) |
| Bills | -1.5 (-112) | -131 | U 46 (-110) |
Kansas City is Undefeated but Vulnerable
Kansas City is 9-0, but that needs to be put in its proper context.
There is a dominant undefeated season like New England in 2007.
And there is an undefeated season in which the team squeaks through based on experience, good fortune, reputation, and talent.
Kansas City could have and probably should have lost four games already.
Their Week 10 win over Denver is a prime example. The Broncos dominated the action, but Kansas City held a late lead before Denver got in range for a last-second field goal that KC linebacker Leo Chenal blocked.
They escaped again.
Quarterback Patrick Mahomes has been good enough instead of his usual great. His passer rating and touchdown percentage are the worst of his career since he became a starter. He has only 12 touchdown passes and has thrown nine interceptions.
In short, he — like his team — is doing just enough to win.
Will that cut it in Buffalo?
Injuries are hampering them. They have filled in admirably for Isiah Pacheco with Kareem Hunt and Rashee Rice by acquiring DeAndre Hopkins.
The latest injury loss might be the most understatedly important. Star kicker Harrison Butker has a knee injury and was placed on injured reserve. As a replacement, they signed untested rookie Spencer Shrader off the Jets’ practice squad.
Buffalo Knows What’s at Stake
Kansas City bounced Buffalo from the playoffs in 2020, 2021, and 2023. Buffalo now might be the last obstacle preventing Kansas City’s undefeated season. It could be this Bills core’s last chance to beat the Chiefs.
Quarterback Josh Allen is making a case for MVP with 17 touchdown passes against four interceptions and 261 yards rushing. Recent acquisition, wide receiver Amari Cooper, has been dealing with a wrist injury, but believes he will play.
The Bills are third in the league in points per game and first in takeaway differential. Kansas City has been relatively weak in both areas, 11th in points per game and 24th in turnover differential. For a game between evenly matched teams, it could be decided on the margins, specifically turnovers and special teams, two areas where the Bills have a decided advantage entering this contest.
Chiefs vs Bills Prediction: KC Losing Butker is the Key
In a close game, kickers matter greatly. Although the weather in Buffalo is expected to be unseasonably warm, Kansas City is without its star kicker. They are using a rookie who’s made five professional kicks for two teams.
It is a difference-maker that will be critical to favored Buffalo covering the 1.5-point spread.
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