The New England Patriots (3-9) host the Indianapolis Colts (5-7) in a game that could surprisingly have playoff ramifications for Indianapolis if they win. Our Colts vs Patriots prediction is that New England will win the game outright.
The teams battled for AFC supremacy during the Tom Brady and Peyton Manning years. Most often, New England wound up on top.
Head-to-head, the Patriots lead with a record of 53-31.
Offshore Odds: Colts Favored by Less Than a Field Goal
| Team | Spread | Money Line | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Colts | -2.5 (-111) | -141 | O 42.5 (-112) |
| Patriots | +2.5 (-109) | +121 | U 42.5 (-108) |
Colts Have Faint Playoff Hopes
With five games left in the 2024 NFL regular season, Indianapolis is two full games behind Houston in the AFC South. Still, there is a slight chance they can win the division.
It starts with beating New England.
The Colts have lost four of five. They reinserted young Anthony Richardson at quarterback and, after an inspired performance in a road win over the Jets, he reverted to the same player who managed to get benched in favor of 39-year-old Joe Flacco.
In a 24-6 loss to Detroit, Richardson completed 11 of 28 passes for 172 yards. He ran for 61 on 10 carries. The question now has to be whether that comeback win against the Jets was a one-off and this is what he is at this point in his career. They are threading the line of evaluating Richardson while trying to crawl back into playoff contention.
The Colts average 20.2 points per game, 21st in the league. They are in the bottom half or third in the NFL in every key, team-centric category including points scored, points allowed, takeaway differential, passing yards, and rushing yards gained and surrendered.
A competent Richardson will open running lanes for Jonathan Taylor. If not, the Colts will likely lose.
New England’s Incremental Improvements
Nobody said it would be easy for New England to start over after the end of Bill Belichick’s reign. Under first-year head coach Jerod Mayo, there have been obvious growing pains. Still, there are slow improvements clear to the eye and obvious on the stat sheet.
Rookie quarterback Drake Maye has a 65.5 completion percentage in eight games. He has thrown for 10 touchdown passes and seven interceptions. He is not lighting the world on fire, but he’s not embarrassing himself.
The offense is having trouble getting the ball in the end zone, ranked next to last in points per game. But there are pieces in place with Maye, running back Rhamondre Stevenson, and wide receivers Demario Douglas, and Kayshon Battle.
Defensively, they are ranked 22nd in passing yards per game and 18th in rushing yards per game.
Colts vs Patriots Prediction: Richardson Cannot Be Trusted Yet
Although he has shown impressive physical gifts, Richardson has been objectively terrible. The only reason he was reinserted as the starter was because Flacco was bad too. New England is getting better quarterback play. They should win at home.
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