The Green Bay Packers (8-3) host the Miami Dolphins (5-6) on Thursday Night Football in the third NFL Thanksgiving game of the day. Our Dolphins vs Packers prediction is for underdog Miami to win the game outright and the teams to score more than 47 points.
Head-to-head, the teams have played 16 times. Miami leads with a 10-6 record.
Offshore Odds: Green Bay Favored By a Field Goal
| Team | Spread | Money Line | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dolphins | +3 (-101) | +155 | O 47 (-110) |
| Packers | -3 (-119) | -175 | U 47 (-110) |
Miami Crawls Back Into Playoff Contention
Beset by injuries and bad luck, Miami fell to 2-6 after a Week 9 loss in Buffalo. Their season appeared over. However, three straight wins have lifted them to 5-6 and put them in the playoff conversation, 1.5 games behind Denver for the final AFC playoff spot.
A major part of their win streak has been, bluntly, a stretch of games against weaker teams. They defeated the LA Rams, Las Vegas, and New England. Playing Green Bay will provide a clearer indication of what Miami is. They are certainly not as bad as they were between Weeks 3 and 7 when they were without quarterback Tua Tagovailoa. But how good are they?
Miami’s strength has been its defense. They are ranked eighth in passing yards allowed per game and ninth in rushing yards. As for points allowed per game, they are 11th. The poor overall offensive statistics need to be put in the context of functioning without Tua.
Miami’s likely strategy against Green Bay will likely be to contain star running back Josh Jacobs. They must get running back De’Von Achane involved early.
Green Bay’s Playoff Position is Locked In
As well as the Packers have played, being in the NFC North has put them in an unusual situation. With their losses to Minnesota and Detroit, they are not going to win the division. They are all but stuck with a road Wild Card game, but will probably not fall to the last playoff spot.
The argument could be made that Green Bay should be judicious with its dinged-up key players Jacobs and the concussed Romeo Doubs.
For the most part, their 2024 season has been about winning and losing closely fought games. They blew out Arizona, won going away against Tennessee, and hammered injury-ravaged San Francisco. Blocking a game-winning field goal attempt saved them against Chicago. They squeaked by Jacksonville.
Tua is back and playing well. These teams are evenly matched with the chance that Green Bay will fall behind and play the long game by conceding for the greater good.
Dolphins vs Packers Prediction: Miami Will Upset Green Bay
Given Miami’s desperation to stay within striking distance of a playoff spot, and Green Bay beaten up and locked into the sixth seed, this is a game ripe for an upset. Miami has been playing well since Tua’s return and should score against Green Bay. Both teams will put up points and Miami will prevail.
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