- The 2024 Democratic National Convention wrapped up on August 22, after a week of speeches.
- On August 23, Independent candidate Robert Kennedy Jr. effectively suspended his campaign.
- Kennedy chose to endorse Republican candidate Donald Trump in exchange for a cabinet spot.
The decision by Robert Kennedy Jr. to drop out and endorse Donald Trump has been in motion for a long time. Once Biden dropped out, many “double-haters” of both candidates who supported Kennedy as a protest option returned to voting for one of the main candidates. Amidst dwindling polling numbers, Kennedy made calls to both campaigns but was refused a cabinet position by Harris, resulting in his final decision to endorse Trump.
How it Affects Kamala Harris’ Election Odds
Kamala Harris was the beneficiary of a massive polling and funding surge after Joe Biden dropped out of running for re-election. In under a month, her campaign raised $500 million from grassroots donors. Meanwhile, the polling average went from Trump +3.5 a month ago to Harris +3.5 where it currently stands.
However, Harris’ momentum may have peaked at the DNC. There are some major threats to her candidacy. To start, Harris has been notably quiet about her campaign policies. Her acceptance speech at the DNC was too similar to Joe Biden, with very little to distinguish the two candidates. As one of the most unpopular presidents in American history, Biden and his platform are toxic to voters. Her gains since Biden dropped out are unlikely to stay committed to her if she can’t distinguish herself as a unique candidate with her own political platform.
Additionally, the dropping out of Robert Kennedy Jr. could further hurt Kamala Harris’ campaign. While many of Kennedy’s supporters hate the main two parties and candidates too much to consider voting for either, his endorsement of Trump will undoubtedly sway more open-minded, undecided independents. Harris may have made a crucial mistake by refusing Kennedy a cabinet position, just to parrot the same talking points that pushed away independents. We expect the polling average to shift back towards Trump over the next month.
How it Affects Donald Trump’s Election Odds
Donald Trump’s election odds plummeted when Joe Biden dropped out of the race. After taking full advantage of Biden’s deteriorating mental state in the June debate, Trump established himself as the more cognitively sound candidate. However, the landscaped changed when Biden was replaced by a younger Kamala Harris.
Trump had led in every single swing state prior to the swap, threatening to flip even states that were safely blue. However, he is projected to lose the election as of this week. The Robert Kennedy Jr. endorsement has a key chance to get the Trump campaign back on track. Compounded by an uninspiring DNC performance by Harris, Republicans have the most momentum they’ve had since Trump survived his assassination attempt. Many of Kennedy’s supporters are anti-big government and see Trump as the better candidate of the two main options.
In order for Trump to fully capitalize on Robert Kennedy Jr.’s endorsement, he needs to do a better job of appealing to independents. Both major American political parties have taken on a hyper-polarized “my party is right” mentality. Easing that rhetoric could help Trump regain estranged voters who are tired of the political drama. The more Trump touts economic improvement, border security, and lower inflation, the more votes he’ll get. Focusing too much on tearing down the other party instead of their own strengths has cost both sides.
Updated 2024 U.S. Election Odds
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| J. D. Vance | - | +300 | - | +250 | - | +250 | +267 | +250 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donald Trump | - | +600 | - | - | - | - | +600 | - |
| Josh Shapiro | - | +1000 | - | +1400 | - | +1000 | +1100 | +1000 |
| Gretchen Whitmer | - | +1600 | - | +2000 | - | +1600 | +1700 | +1600 |
| Gavin Newsom | - | +1800 | - | +1600 | - | +1200 | +1500 | +1200 |
| Wes Moore | - | +1800 | - | +3000 | - | +2800 | +2500 | +2800 |
| Kamala Harris | - | +2000 | - | +3500 | - | +2000 | +2500 | +2000 |
| Andy Beshear | - | +2200 | - | +3000 | - | - | +2600 | - |
| Donald Trump Jr. | - | +2500 | - | +1400 | - | +1200 | +1700 | +1200 |
| Ron DeSantis | - | +2500 | - | +3000 | - | +2500 | +2700 | +2500 |
| Michelle Obama | - | +2500 | - | +3000 | - | +2000 | +2500 | +2000 |
| Marco Rubio | - | +2800 | - | - | - | +2800 | +2800 | +2800 |
| Ivanka Trump | - | +3300 | - | +6000 | - | +4000 | +4400 | +4000 |
| Mark Cuban | - | +3300 | - | +5000 | - | - | +4200 | - |
| Brian Kemp | - | +4000 | - | +5000 | - | +5000 | +4700 | +5000 |
| Tulsi Gabbard | - | +4000 | - | +2500 | - | +2500 | +3000 | +2500 |
| Kristi Noem | - | +4000 | - | - | - | +4000 | +4000 | +4000 |
| Pete Buttigieg | - | +4000 | - | +2000 | - | +2000 | +2700 | +2000 |
| Mark Kelly | - | +4000 | - | +3500 | - | - | +3800 | - |
| Tom Cotton | - | +4000 | - | +4000 | - | +5000 | +4300 | +5000 |
| Barack Obama | - | +4000 | - | - | - | - | +4000 | - |
| Nikki Haley | - | +4500 | - | +4000 | - | +4000 | +4200 | +4000 |
| Vivek Ramaswamy | - | +5000 | - | +4000 | - | +2000 | +3700 | +2000 |
| Robert F. Kennedy Jr. | - | +5000 | - | +4000 | - | - | +4500 | - |
| Raphael Warnock | - | +5000 | - | - | - | +6600 | +5800 | +6600 |
| Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez | - | +5000 | - | +4000 | - | +4000 | +4300 | +4000 |
| Dwayne Johnson | - | +5000 | - | +5000 | - | +6600 | +5500 | +6600 |
| Roy Cooper | - | +5000 | - | - | - | +4000 | +4500 | +4000 |
| Glenn Youngkin | - | +5000 | - | +5000 | - | - | +5000 | - |
| J. B. Pritzker | - | +5500 | - | +3500 | - | +5000 | +4700 | +5000 |
| Dan Crenshaw | - | +6500 | - | +5000 | - | +5000 | +5500 | +5000 |
| John Fetterman | - | +6500 | - | - | - | +5000 | +5800 | +5000 |
| Amy Klobuchar | - | +6500 | - | - | - | +6600 | +6600 | +6600 |
| Doug Burgum | - | +8000 | - | +5000 | - | +6600 | +6500 | +6600 |
| Elise Stefanik | - | +8000 | - | - | - | +6600 | +7300 | +6600 |
| Josh Hawley | - | +10000 | - | - | - | +8000 | +9000 | +8000 |
| Tucker Carlson | - | +10000 | - | +3000 | - | +3300 | +5400 | +3300 |
| Hakeem Jeffries | - | +10000 | - | +5000 | - | - | +7500 | - |
| Tim Walz | - | +10000 | - | +6000 | - | - | +8000 | - |
| Elon Musk | - | +10000 | - | +3500 | - | - | +6800 | - |
| Katie Britt | - | +10000 | - | - | - | - | +10000 | - |
| Lara Trump | - | +12500 | - | - | - | - | +12500 | - |
| Michael Flynn | - | +12500 | - | - | - | - | +12500 | - |
| Gina Raimondo | - | +12500 | - | - | - | - | +12500 | - |
| Jamie Dimon | - | +12500 | - | +6000 | - | - | +9300 | - |
| Greg Abbott | - | +12500 | - | - | - | - | +12500 | - |
| Hillary Clinton | - | +15000 | - | - | - | - | +15000 | - |
| Mike Pompeo | - | +15000 | - | - | - | +6600 | +10800 | +6600 |
| David Ossoff | - | +15000 | - | - | - | - | +15000 | - |
| George Clooney | - | +15000 | - | - | - | - | +15000 | - |
| Anthony Pompliano | - | +15000 | - | - | - | - | +15000 | - |
| Marc Andreessen | - | +15000 | - | - | - | - | +15000 | - |
| Cory Booker | - | +15000 | - | - | - | - | +15000 | - |
| Elizabeth Warren | - | +20000 | - | - | - | - | +20000 | - |
| Joe Rogan | - | +20000 | - | +10000 | - | - | +15000 | - |
| Rand Paul | - | +25000 | - | - | - | - | +25000 | - |
| Michael Saylor | - | +25000 | - | - | - | - | +25000 | - |
| Jimmy Kimmel | - | +25000 | - | - | - | - | +25000 | - |
| Matthew McConaughey | - | +25000 | - | - | - | - | +25000 | - |
| Bill Burr | - | +25000 | - | - | - | - | +25000 | - |
| Kanye West | - | +25000 | - | - | - | - | +25000 | - |
| Andrew Cuomo | - | +30000 | - | - | - | - | +30000 | - |
| Beto O'Rourke | - | +30000 | - | - | - | - | +30000 | - |
| Kash Patel | - | +30000 | - | - | - | - | +30000 | - |
| Ben Shapiro | - | +30000 | - | - | - | - | +30000 | - |
| Phil Murphy | - | +30000 | - | - | - | - | +30000 | - |
| Eric Swalwell | - | +40000 | - | - | - | - | +40000 | - |
| Oprah Winfrey | - | +50000 | - | - | - | +6600 | +28300 | +6600 |
| Aaron Rodgers | - | +50000 | - | +7500 | - | - | +28800 | - |
| Taylor Swift | - | +50000 | - | +20000 | - | - | +35000 | - |
| Matt Damon | - | +50000 | - | - | - | - | +50000 | - |
| Jon Stewart | - | +50000 | - | +8000 | - | - | +29000 | - |
| Leonardo Dicaprio | - | +50000 | - | - | - | - | +50000 | - |
| Bill Maher | - | +50000 | - | - | - | - | +50000 | - |
| Bill Gates | - | +50000 | - | - | - | - | +50000 | - |
| Tom Brady | - | +50000 | - | - | - | - | +50000 | - |
| Peyton Manning | - | +50000 | - | - | - | - | +50000 | - |
| Lebron James | - | +50000 | - | +20000 | - | - | +35000 | - |
| Neil Degrasse Tyson | - | +50000 | - | - | - | - | +50000 | - |
| Steve Garvey | - | +50000 | - | - | - | - | +50000 | - |
| Dan Gilbert | - | +50000 | - | - | - | - | +50000 | - |
| Ted Leonsis | - | +50000 | - | - | - | - | +50000 | - |
| Steve Ballmer | - | +50000 | - | - | - | - | +50000 | - |
| David Blitzer | - | +50000 | - | - | - | - | +50000 | - |
| Josh Harris | - | +50000 | - | - | - | - | +50000 | - |
| Terry Pegula | - | +50000 | - | - | - | - | +50000 | - |
| Steve Cohen | - | +50000 | - | - | - | - | +50000 | - |
| Bill Clinton | - | +50000 | - | - | - | - | +50000 | - |
| Laura Loomer | - | +100000 | - | - | - | - | +100000 | - |
| Meghan Markle | - | +100000 | - | - | - | - | +100000 | - |
| Howard Stern | - | +100000 | - | - | - | - | +100000 | - |
| Beyoncé | - | +100000 | - | - | - | - | +100000 | - |
| Ben Affleck | - | +100000 | - | - | - | - | +100000 | - |
| Conan O'Brien | - | +100000 | - | - | - | - | +100000 | - |
| Stephen Colbert | - | +100000 | - | - | - | - | +100000 | - |
| Tom Hanks | - | +100000 | - | - | - | - | +100000 | - |
| Chuck Norris | - | +100000 | - | - | - | - | +100000 | - |
| Samuel L. Jackson | - | +100000 | - | - | - | - | +100000 | - |
| Shaquille O'Neal | - | +100000 | - | - | - | - | +100000 | - |
| John Cena | - | +100000 | - | - | - | - | +100000 | - |
| Sandra Bullock | - | +100000 | - | - | - | - | +100000 | - |
| Johnny Depp | - | +100000 | - | - | - | - | +100000 | - |
| Whoopi Goldberg | - | +100000 | - | - | - | - | +100000 | - |
| Nick Saban | - | +100000 | - | - | - | - | +100000 | - |
| Roger Goodell | - | +100000 | - | - | - | - | +100000 | - |
| Steve Kerr | - | +100000 | - | - | - | - | +100000 | - |
| Stephen Curry | - | +100000 | - | - | - | - | +100000 | - |
| Alex Rodriguez | - | +100000 | - | - | - | - | +100000 | - |
| Tiger Woods | - | +100000 | - | - | - | - | +100000 | - |
| Jeanie Buss | - | +100000 | - | - | - | - | +100000 | - |
| John W. Henry | - | +100000 | - | - | - | - | +100000 | - |
| Dana White | - | +250000 | - | +20000 | - | - | +135000 | - |
| Joe Biden | - | +500000 | - | +15000 | - | - | +257500 | - |
| Hunter Biden | - | +500000 | - | - | - | - | +500000 | - |
| Jill Biden | - | +500000 | - | +12500 | - | - | +256300 | - |
| Jennifer Lopez | - | +500000 | - | - | - | - | +500000 | - |
| Denzel Washington | - | +500000 | - | - | - | - | +500000 | - |
| Clint Eastwood | - | +500000 | - | - | - | - | +500000 | - |
| Charles Barkley | - | +500000 | - | - | - | - | +500000 | - |
| Mel Gibson | - | +500000 | - | - | - | - | +500000 | - |
| Snoop Dogg | - | +500000 | - | - | - | - | +500000 | - |
| Gregg Popovich | - | +500000 | - | - | - | - | +500000 | - |
| Tim Scott | - | - | - | +3000 | - | +2500 | +2800 | +2500 |
| Rick Scott | - | - | - | +3000 | - | - | +3000 | - |
| Paul Ryan | - | - | - | +4000 | - | - | +4000 | - |
| Sarah Huckabee Sanders | - | - | - | - | - | +5000 | +5000 | +5000 |
| Tammy Duckworth | - | - | - | - | - | +6600 | +6600 | +6600 |
| Ted Cruz | - | - | - | - | - | +6600 | +6600 | +6600 |
| Matt Gaetz | - | - | - | - | - | +10000 | +10000 | +10000 |
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