- The 2024 Democratic National Convention wrapped up on August 22, after a week of speeches.
- On August 23, Independent candidate Robert Kennedy Jr. effectively suspended his campaign.
- Kennedy chose to endorse Republican candidate Donald Trump in exchange for a cabinet spot.
The decision by Robert Kennedy Jr. to drop out and endorse Donald Trump has been in motion for a long time. Once Biden dropped out, many “double-haters” of both candidates who supported Kennedy as a protest option returned to voting for one of the main candidates. Amidst dwindling polling numbers, Kennedy made calls to both campaigns but was refused a cabinet position by Harris, resulting in his final decision to endorse Trump.
How it Affects Kamala Harris’ Election Odds
Kamala Harris was the beneficiary of a massive polling and funding surge after Joe Biden dropped out of running for re-election. In under a month, her campaign raised $500 million from grassroots donors. Meanwhile, the polling average went from Trump +3.5 a month ago to Harris +3.5 where it currently stands.
However, Harris’ momentum may have peaked at the DNC. There are some major threats to her candidacy. To start, Harris has been notably quiet about her campaign policies. Her acceptance speech at the DNC was too similar to Joe Biden, with very little to distinguish the two candidates. As one of the most unpopular presidents in American history, Biden and his platform are toxic to voters. Her gains since Biden dropped out are unlikely to stay committed to her if she can’t distinguish herself as a unique candidate with her own political platform.
Additionally, the dropping out of Robert Kennedy Jr. could further hurt Kamala Harris’ campaign. While many of Kennedy’s supporters hate the main two parties and candidates too much to consider voting for either, his endorsement of Trump will undoubtedly sway more open-minded, undecided independents. Harris may have made a crucial mistake by refusing Kennedy a cabinet position, just to parrot the same talking points that pushed away independents. We expect the polling average to shift back towards Trump over the next month.
How it Affects Donald Trump’s Election Odds
Donald Trump’s election odds plummeted when Joe Biden dropped out of the race. After taking full advantage of Biden’s deteriorating mental state in the June debate, Trump established himself as the more cognitively sound candidate. However, the landscaped changed when Biden was replaced by a younger Kamala Harris.
Trump had led in every single swing state prior to the swap, threatening to flip even states that were safely blue. However, he is projected to lose the election as of this week. The Robert Kennedy Jr. endorsement has a key chance to get the Trump campaign back on track. Compounded by an uninspiring DNC performance by Harris, Republicans have the most momentum they’ve had since Trump survived his assassination attempt. Many of Kennedy’s supporters are anti-big government and see Trump as the better candidate of the two main options.
In order for Trump to fully capitalize on Robert Kennedy Jr.’s endorsement, he needs to do a better job of appealing to independents. Both major American political parties have taken on a hyper-polarized “my party is right” mentality. Easing that rhetoric could help Trump regain estranged voters who are tired of the political drama. The more Trump touts economic improvement, border security, and lower inflation, the more votes he’ll get. Focusing too much on tearing down the other party instead of their own strengths has cost both sides.
Updated 2024 U.S. Election Odds
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| Jon Ossoff | - | +350 | - | +400 | - | - | +367 | - |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. D. Vance | - | +500 | - | +500 | - | - | +500 | - |
| Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez | - | +700 | - | +750 | - | - | +717 | - |
| Gavin Newsom | - | +850 | - | +900 | - | - | +867 | - |
| Marco Rubio | - | +850 | - | +850 | - | - | +850 | - |
| Ron DeSantis | - | +1200 | - | +1500 | - | - | +1300 | - |
| Kamala Harris | - | +2000 | - | +4000 | - | - | +2700 | - |
| Josh Shapiro | - | +2200 | - | +3000 | - | - | +2500 | - |
| Pete Buttigieg | - | +3000 | - | +4000 | - | - | +3300 | - |
| Mark Kelly | - | +4000 | - | +5000 | - | - | +4300 | - |
| Thomas Massie | - | +4000 | - | +8000 | - | - | +5300 | - |
| Tucker Carlson | - | +4500 | - | +4000 | - | - | +4300 | - |
| Andy Beshear | - | +4500 | - | +5000 | - | - | +4700 | - |
| Michelle Obama | - | +6000 | - | +6500 | - | - | +6200 | - |
| Wes Moore | - | +6000 | - | +6600 | - | - | +6200 | - |
| J. B. Pritzker | - | +6000 | - | +10000 | - | - | +7300 | - |
| Ro Khanna | - | +6000 | - | - | - | - | +6000 | - |
| Donald Trump | - | +6500 | - | +5000 | - | - | +6000 | - |
| Raphael Warnock | - | +7000 | - | - | - | - | +7000 | - |
| Roy Cooper | - | +7000 | - | - | - | - | +7000 | - |
| Ted Cruz | - | +7000 | - | +20000 | - | - | +11300 | - |
| Gretchen Whitmer | - | +8000 | - | +5000 | - | - | +7000 | - |
| Rahm Emanuel | - | +8000 | - | +15000 | - | - | +10300 | - |
| Glenn Youngkin | - | +9000 | - | +10000 | - | - | +9300 | - |
| Donald Trump Jr. | - | +10000 | - | +15000 | - | - | +11700 | - |
| Nikki Haley | - | +10000 | - | +10000 | - | - | +10000 | - |
| Doug Burgum | - | +11000 | - | +20000 | - | - | +14000 | - |
| Ivanka Trump | - | +12500 | - | +10000 | - | - | +11700 | - |
| Tom Cotton | - | +12500 | - | +20000 | - | - | +15000 | - |
| Elizabeth Warren | - | +12500 | - | - | - | - | +12500 | - |
| Dwayne Johnson | - | +12500 | - | +20000 | - | - | +15000 | - |
| Jon Stewart | - | +12500 | - | +20000 | - | - | +15000 | - |
| Cory Booker | - | +12500 | - | - | - | - | +12500 | - |
| Katie Britt | - | +12500 | - | - | - | - | +12500 | - |
| Barack Obama | - | +12500 | - | - | - | - | +12500 | - |
| Chris Murphy | - | +12500 | - | - | - | - | +12500 | - |
| Josh Hawley | - | +15000 | - | - | - | - | +15000 | - |
| Robert F. Kennedy Jr. | - | +15000 | - | +15000 | - | - | +15000 | - |
| Mark Cuban | - | +15000 | - | +15000 | - | - | +15000 | - |
| Jamie Dimon | - | +15000 | - | +20000 | - | - | +16700 | - |
| Erika Kirk | - | +15000 | - | - | - | - | +15000 | - |
| Tim Scott | - | +15000 | - | +20000 | - | - | +16700 | - |
| Brian Kemp | - | +20000 | - | +20000 | - | - | +20000 | - |
| Tulsi Gabbard | - | +20000 | - | +8000 | - | - | +16000 | - |
| Eric Trump | - | +20000 | - | - | - | - | +20000 | - |
| Pete Hegseth | - | +20000 | - | - | - | - | +20000 | - |
| Lara Trump | - | +25000 | - | - | - | - | +25000 | - |
| Rand Paul | - | +25000 | - | - | - | - | +25000 | - |
| Elon Musk | - | +25000 | - | +20000 | - | - | +23300 | - |
| Mike Johnson | - | +25000 | - | - | - | - | +25000 | - |
| Spencer Cox | - | +25000 | - | - | - | - | +25000 | - |
| Beto O'Rourke | - | +30000 | - | - | - | - | +30000 | - |
| Anthony Pompliano | - | +30000 | - | - | - | - | +30000 | - |
| Jimmy Kimmel | - | +30000 | - | - | - | - | +30000 | - |
| Bill Burr | - | +30000 | - | - | - | - | +30000 | - |
| John Fetterman | - | +30000 | - | - | - | - | +30000 | - |
| Amy Klobuchar | - | +30000 | - | - | - | - | +30000 | - |
| Stephen A. Smith | - | +30000 | - | +20000 | - | - | +26700 | - |
| Michael Saylor | - | +35000 | - | - | - | - | +35000 | - |
| Matthew McConaughey | - | +35000 | - | - | - | - | +35000 | - |
| Hillary Clinton | - | +40000 | - | - | - | - | +40000 | - |
| Michael Flynn | - | +40000 | - | - | - | - | +40000 | - |
| Gina Raimondo | - | +40000 | - | - | - | - | +40000 | - |
| Ben Shapiro | - | +40000 | - | - | - | - | +40000 | - |
| Joe Rogan | - | +40000 | - | +50000 | - | - | +43300 | - |
| Elise Stefanik | - | +40000 | - | - | - | - | +40000 | - |
| Vivek Ramaswamy | - | +50000 | - | +10000 | - | - | +36700 | - |
| Mike Pompeo | - | +50000 | - | - | - | - | +50000 | - |
| Oprah Winfrey | - | +50000 | - | - | - | - | +50000 | - |
| Hakeem Jeffries | - | +50000 | - | +6500 | - | - | +35500 | - |
| Aaron Rodgers | - | +50000 | - | +20000 | - | - | +40000 | - |
| Taylor Swift | - | +50000 | - | +50000 | - | - | +50000 | - |
| Matt Damon | - | +50000 | - | - | - | - | +50000 | - |
| Leonardo Dicaprio | - | +50000 | - | - | - | - | +50000 | - |
| Bill Maher | - | +50000 | - | - | - | - | +50000 | - |
| Bill Gates | - | +50000 | - | - | - | - | +50000 | - |
| Tom Brady | - | +50000 | - | - | - | - | +50000 | - |
| Peyton Manning | - | +50000 | - | - | - | - | +50000 | - |
| Lebron James | - | +50000 | - | +20000 | - | - | +40000 | - |
| Neil Degrasse Tyson | - | +50000 | - | - | - | - | +50000 | - |
| Marc Andreessen | - | +50000 | - | - | - | - | +50000 | - |
| Steve Garvey | - | +50000 | - | - | - | - | +50000 | - |
| Dan Gilbert | - | +50000 | - | - | - | - | +50000 | - |
| Ted Leonsis | - | +50000 | - | - | - | - | +50000 | - |
| Steve Ballmer | - | +50000 | - | - | - | - | +50000 | - |
| David Blitzer | - | +50000 | - | - | - | - | +50000 | - |
| Josh Harris | - | +50000 | - | - | - | - | +50000 | - |
| Terry Pegula | - | +50000 | - | - | - | - | +50000 | - |
| Steve Cohen | - | +50000 | - | - | - | - | +50000 | - |
| Dean Phillips | - | +50000 | - | - | - | - | +50000 | - |
| Jeff Bezos | - | +50000 | - | - | - | - | +50000 | - |
| Kristi Noem | - | +75000 | - | - | - | - | +75000 | - |
| Kash Patel | - | +75000 | - | - | - | - | +75000 | - |
| Greg Abbott | - | +75000 | - | +15000 | - | - | +55000 | - |
| Bill Clinton | - | +75000 | - | - | - | - | +75000 | - |
| George Clooney | - | +80000 | - | - | - | - | +80000 | - |
| Phil Murphy | - | +80000 | - | - | - | - | +80000 | - |
| Andrew Cuomo | - | +100000 | - | - | - | - | +100000 | - |
| Meghan Markle | - | +100000 | - | - | - | - | +100000 | - |
| Howard Stern | - | +100000 | - | - | - | - | +100000 | - |
| Beyoncé | - | +100000 | - | - | - | - | +100000 | - |
| Ben Affleck | - | +100000 | - | - | - | - | +100000 | - |
| Conan O'Brien | - | +100000 | - | - | - | - | +100000 | - |
| Stephen Colbert | - | +100000 | - | - | - | - | +100000 | - |
| Tom Hanks | - | +100000 | - | - | - | - | +100000 | - |
| Chuck Norris | - | +100000 | - | - | - | - | +100000 | - |
| Alex Rodriguez | - | +100000 | - | - | - | - | +100000 | - |
| Tiger Woods | - | +100000 | - | - | - | - | +100000 | - |
| Jeanie Buss | - | +100000 | - | - | - | - | +100000 | - |
| John W. Henry | - | +100000 | - | - | - | - | +100000 | - |
| Steve Bannon | - | +100000 | - | - | - | - | +100000 | - |
| Laura Loomer | - | +200000 | - | - | - | - | +200000 | - |
| Dana White | - | +250000 | - | +25000 | - | - | +175000 | - |
| Hunter Biden | - | +500000 | - | - | - | - | +500000 | - |
| Gregg Popovich | - | +500000 | - | - | - | - | +500000 | - |
| Dan Crenshaw | - | - | - | +6500 | - | - | +6500 | - |
| Paul Ryan | - | - | - | +6500 | - | - | +6500 | - |
| Rick Scott | - | - | - | +15000 | - | - | +15000 | - |
| Tim Walz | - | - | - | +20000 | - | - | +20000 | - |
| Jill Biden | - | - | - | +20000 | - | - | +20000 | - |
| Joe Biden | - | - | - | +20000 | - | - | +20000 | - |
| Candace Owens | - | - | - | +20000 | - | - | +20000 | - |
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