The Atlanta Falcons (6-4) travel to Denver to play the 5-5 Broncos. Both teams are coming off difficult losses in Week 10. Our Falcons vs Broncos prediction is for the teams to score less than 44 points.
Atlanta, in first place in the AFC South, saw their march to the playoffs interrupted by a 20-17 upset loss in New Orleans.
Denver’s loss was worse. They were a field goal away from dealing Kansas City its first loss of the season and ruining the Chiefs’ chance at the first undefeated NFL season since the 2007 Patriots. But Broncos kicker Wil Lutz’s 35-yard attempt was blocked as time ran out.
Head-to-head, Denver has a 9-7 advantage.
The teams met in Miami for Super Bowl XXXIII. The Broncos won their second consecutive championship 34-19.
Offshore Odds: Denver is a Slight Favorite at Home
| Team | Spread | Money Line | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Falcons | +2.5 (+114) | +114 | O 44 (-115) |
| Broncos | -2.5 (-105) | -134 | U 44 (-105) |
Atlanta Tries to Get Back in the Win Column
Atlanta has a two-game lead over Tampa Bay in their division. Given their weak schedule to end the season (three of their final four games are against Las Vegas, the Giants, and Carolina) they are reasonably assured of holding on.
Still, their loss to 2-7 New Orleans was rough, particularly since they were held scoreless in the fourth quarter.
These teams are evenly matched. Atlanta is fifth in the league in passing yards per game and Denver is in the top 10 in pass defense per game. Quarterback Kirk Cousins’ shoulder and elbow are stoking concern, but he will play.
Denver Could Rue Loss to Kansas City
Denver head coach Sean Payton has dragged an undermanned and retooling team into playoff contention for the second consecutive year. He’s spoon-feeding a talented rookie quarterback, Bo Nix.
Denver had Kansas City where it wanted them, building a 14-3 lead before the Chiefs mounted their comeback eventually taking a lead with just under six minutes remaining. Nix engineered a drive to the Chiefs’ 17-yard line. They lined up for a game-winning field goal. But Leo Chenal blocked Lutz’s kick.
Despite the loss, it was positive that Denver, with the third-youngest roster in the league, could put such a scare into the undefeated, two-time defending champions. Their defense is their strength and their offense is building to catch up to it. They are fourth in the NFL in fewest points allowed per game and are in the top 10 in defensive passing and rushing yards per game.
Neither team has been adept with takeaway differential.
Falcons vs Broncos Prediction: Expect a Low-Scoring Grind
Denver cannot get into a shootout with Atlanta. They must control the clock and keep the ball out of Cousins’ hands. The teams will likely combine to score less than 44 points.
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