The Atlanta Falcons (8-7) visit the Washington Commanders (10-5) with both teams hoping to punch their ticket to the playoffs. Our Falcons vs Commanders prediction is for home favorite Washington to cover the 3.5-point spread.
Atlanta’s path is to win the NFC South, which they will do if they win their last two games. If Washington beats Atlanta or Tampa Bay loses to Carolina, then the Commanders are in. They can even still win the NFC East in a complicated and unlikely scenario.
Head-to-head, Washington leads with a record of 18-10-1.
Offshore Odds: The Commanders are 3.5-Point Favorites
| Team | Spread | Money Line | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Falcons | +3.5 (-115) | +160 | O 46.5 (-110) |
| Commanders | -3.5 (-105) | -180 | U 46.5 (-110) |
Atlanta Has a Simple Playoff Path
If the Falcons win their last two games against Washington and Carolina, they win the NFC South. They will also win the division if they win one of their games and Tampa loses one. However, if they lose one and Tampa wins both of their games, Tampa wins the division.
After breaking its four-game losing streak that cost them a commanding lead in the divisional race, they have won two straight against the NFL dregs, the Raiders and Giants. Now, they face a stiff challenge with rookie quarterback Michael Penix Jr. making his second start since taking over for veteran Kirk Cousins.
Penix had a solid debut against New York in the Falcons’ 34-7 win. He completed 18 of 27 passes for 202 yards and one interception that was not his fault.
But Washington is not the Giants. The Commanders have been vulnerable to the pass and solid against the run. But expect head coach Dan Quinn to focus on stopping Atlanta’s run game and force Penix to beat them.
Wide receiver Drake London’s knee was banged up, but he is expected to play.
Washington on the Verge of an Unexpected Playoff Berth
The Commanders have won three straight. Two were against struggling New Orleans and Tennessee. But in Week 16 against the Eagles, they staged a monumental comeback from 27-14 down late in the third quarter to win 36-33 on a Jayden Daniels touchdown pass with six seconds remaining. The rookie QB threw five touchdowns in the game.
Washington will be without cornerback Marshon Lattimore and tackle Andrew Wylie.
Atlanta has been vulnerable to the pass, so expect Daniels to try and push the ball down the field.
The key to Washington winning this game is stopping the dual-headed running attack of Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier. Washington is in the middle of the pack in sack total, but they must pressure Penix and hope he makes rookie mistakes.
Falcons vs Commanders Prediction: Washington Breaks Its Playoff Drought
Atlanta is still wobbly despite its two straight wins and catching Tampa Bay for first place. With a rookie quarterback and Washington on a mission, it’s difficult to see the Falcons winning. The Commanders should win by more than 3.5 points.
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