A wide-open renewal of the Pennsylvania Derby will be staged at Parx this weekend, and we are keen on the chances of a runner at a double-digit price.
The race will be the 13th on the card in Pennsylvania this weekend, and an expected field of eleven runners are expected to line-up, including the 2024 Preakness winner, Seize The Grey.
Offshore Odds: Up-and-Comer Favored to Land First Grade One
| Horse | Moneyline |
|---|---|
| Dragoon Guard | +180 |
| Stronghold | +250 |
| Seize The Grey | +500 |
| Protective | +800 |
| Unmatched Wisdom | +800 |
| Timeout | +1000 |
| Uncle Heavy | +1200 |
| Doc Sullivan | +1200 |
Pennsylvania Derby Recent Winners
| Year | Winning Horse | Winning Jockey | Winning Trainer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | Saudi Crown | Florent Geroux | Brad Cox |
| 2022 | Taiba | Mike Smith | Bob Baffert |
| 2021 | Hot Rod Charlie | Flavien Prat | Doug O’Neill |
| 2020 | NOT HELD | NOT HELD | NOT HELD |
| 2019 | Math Wizard | Irad Ortiz Jr | Saffie Joseph Jr |
| 2018 | McKinzie | Mike Smith | Bob Baffert |
| 2017 | West Coast | Mike Smith | Bob Baffert |
Pennsylvania Derby: Race Information
| Information | Stats |
|---|---|
| Track | Parx Racing and Casino |
| Classification | Grade One |
| First Held | 1979 |
| Race Distance | 1 1/8 Miles |
| Race Conditions | Three Year Olds Only |
| Purse | $1 Million |
| Most Successful Jockey | Joe Brave/ Mike Smith (3) |
| Most Successful Trainer | Bob Baffert (4) |
Before Betting
One of the final big purses of the U.S. season that is reserved for horses aged three will be contested at Parx this weekend. The Pennsylvania Derby has been won by some smart types throughout history, including 2014 Breeders’ Cup Classic champion Bayern.
This weekend’s race doesn’t appear to have the same kind of high-quality field, with Brad Cox’s Dragoon Guard heading the betting. The three-year-old by Arrogate certainly presents the most exciting profile, and a major step forward was taken on his previous appearance when landing the G3 West Virginia Derby.
He also boasts a solid form line over Stronghold after beating his re-appearing rival over 1 1/16 miles in the G3 Indiana Derby. But, questions remain.
Given the form edge boasted by the favorite over the second favorite, I’m happy to dismiss Stronghold. Seize The Grey is currently a big price on the moneyline, and he’s certainly a massive player on his return for D. Wayne Lukas.
The three-year-old has competed against the best in the division this season, getting the better of Mystik Dan to land the G1 Preakness, before being well beaten in both the G1 Belmont Stakes and G2 Jim Dandy. But, if back at his Preakness level, he boasts obvious claims.
Pennsylvania Derby Prediction
This isn’t the highest quality renewal of the Pennsylvania Derby, meaning I’m siding with a horse with proven form at the track. Uncle Heavy ran a solid enough race in the Smarty Jones Stakes on his previous outing, registering a career-best Equibase rating of 98 in the process.
He ran no sort of race in the Preakness earlier in the season, but was a previous winner over this distance on debut before landing the G3 Withers. At a double-digit price, he’s worth chancing.
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