One of the biggest early prep races on the road to the Kentucky Derby takes place this weekend at Fair Grounds, as the Risen Star Stakes headlines a huge day of racing in Louisiana. Below, we will go through the card on Saturday and examine the best picks to make with the leading horse racing sportsbooks.
Risen Star Stakes- Grade 2
There’s only one place to start this weekend, and that is the Risen Star Stakes. The race is worth 50 qualifying points for the Kentucky Derby, and has been a stopping point for both War Emblem and Country House, who went on to win the opening Triple Crown race. This year’s renewal looks one of the strongest in recent years.
The field includes the current Kentucky Derby favorite Smile Happy, who I am a massive fan of. His form looks incredibly strong coming into this, and that was backed up last weekend when Classic Causeway won the Sam F. Davis. The three-year-old beat the winner last weekend on his latest start over 1 1/16 miles in the G2 Kentucky Jockey Club. If he has come on as much since that start, then he looks incredibly hard to oppose, and could put down a marker for the Triple Crown season ahead.
Pappacap and Epicentre have also competed on the prep run to this point. The latter was second in the G3 Lecomte at Fair Grounds with Pappacap back in third. Both will be close again this weekend, especially Pappacap, who was second behind Corniche in the G1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. Zandon and Slow Down Andy are both solid contenders.
However, aside from the favorite, I would be intrigued by Pioneer of Medina. The three-year-old has already recorded a victory at Fair Grounds this season over 1 1/16 miles. He is two from two since switching to the dirt, and could be a place play this weekend.
Free Pick: 1- Smile Happy 2- Pioneer of Medina
Rachel Alexandra Stakes- Grade 2
The attention will also be on the Kentucky Oaks this weekend, as the Rachel Alexandra Stakes offers winning connections 50 points. Two winners of the Oaks in the past four years have run in this race, including Seregeti Empress in 2019.
Miss Mattie B is an interesting sort, but defeat to Awake at Midnyte and Under the Stars in the G2 Santa Ynez does mean that Awake At Midnyte may be the more interesting of the two here. However, her experience in bigger fields may be a slight concern. Goddess of Fire is an excellent chance for respected connections, and was 3rd in the Pocahontas and 2nd in the Gasprilla. Her style of sitting of the pace could make her an interesting selection here.
However, the two that I like the most in this race are La Crete and North County. The latter is three from three, and claimed success over the Fair Grounds dirt last time out when beating Fannie and Freddie in the Untappable. I believe that she is an improving sort, and will go close again here.
But, I will be sticking with the Steven Asmussen-trained La Crete. Asmussen has won this race on six occasions, including twice in the previous two renewals. La Crete won over this distance on debut at Churchill Downs, and claimed victory in the Silver Bullet Day Stakes last time out, beating Fannie and Freddie. Her early pace will be a factor given that she starts on the rail, but she ticks a lot of boxes for me.
Pick: La Crete
Other Fair Grounds Predictions This Weekend
| Fair Grounds Stakes (G3) | Adhamo |
| Mineshaft Stakes (G3) | O Besos |
