MLB: Mariners vs. Astros Prediction, Offshore Odds, and Stats (Sep 25)

Our Mariners vs. Astros prediction is the Mariners Run Line -1.5 (+130).

The Astros have clinched the AL West and their playoff position is cemented as the American League division winner with the worst record meaning they will play the lowest seeded Wild Card team in the first round.

The Mariners still have a small chance of making the playoffs with Baseball-Reference calculating it at 6.8%.

Offshore Odds: Mariners Are Favored

Mariners vs. Astros: Head-to-Head Stats

The Mariners lead the 2024 season series winning 7 and losing 5. On June 18, they had a 10-game lead in the American League West over the slow-starting Astros. One month later, the teams were tied. By September, the Astros led the division by 6 games.

Before Betting

The game is essentially meaningless to the Astros but for maintaining the sanctity of a pennant race for the teams the Mariners are chasing: the Tigers, Royals and Twins. Still, the Astros are not obligated to treat the game as if it is in any way important to them.

For the veteran team from Houston with their wealth of postseason experience, their priority is staying healthy and ready for the playoffs. As stated earlier, they are locked in as the three seed.

Mariners starter George Kirby started September poorly but has pitched brilliantly in his last two outings surrendering a 6 hits and 2 runs in a combined 13 innings in consecutive starts against the Rangers. The Astros’ key players — Alex Bregman, Jose Altuve and Yordan Alvarez — have had little success against him, though Kyle Tucker is 5 for 15 vs. Kirby.

Yusei Kikuchi starts for the Astros. Again, since the game is irrelevant to them, the likelihood is that the lefty will be on a strict pitch count and be pulled when he reaches it regardless of the score and situation. Mariners outfielder Randy Arozarena is 5 for 19 with 2 home runs in his career against Kikuchi.

Mariners vs. Astros Prediction

Bluntly, the Mariners need to win and the Astros don’t. With Kirby on the mound for the Mariners and the overwhelming likelihood that the Astros will be relaxing after clinching the division with their backups playing, the Mariners should cover the run line.

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