The 2023 PFL 4 event is headlined by the Brendan Loughnane vs. Jesus Pinedo fight, but the reigning featherweight champ is priced at -550 right now. That said, the headliner fight might not be too interesting for bettors.
The same goes for the co-main event, in which Movlin Dhaybulaev has PFL 4 odds of -800 to beat Tyler Diamond. But even he isn’t the biggest favorite of the June 8 event. Instead, it’s Marthin Hamlet whose PFL 4 odds against Sam Kei are -1250 at some offshore betting sites.
The good news is that there’s one fight this Thursday that comes with a much better betting value. What we’re talking about is the PFL 4 preliminary fight between Gabriel Alves Braga and Marlon Moraes.
Before Betting on Marlon Moraes vs. Gabriel Alves Braga
“Gabriel Alves Braga is not on my level” – this is what Marlon Moraes said about his PFL 4 opponent earlier this week. If that’s true, why is “Magic” seen as a +225 underdog in Thursday’s fight? It’s because the 35-year-old Brazilian has lost each of his last six fights, each time by KO/TKO.
However, there’s an explanation for this. Moraes fought against some real legends of the sport, including last year’s PFL Featherweight champ, Brandan Loughnane, and the possible UFC title challenger, Merab Dvalishvili.
The fighters he lost to are way, way better than his next opponent. Still, this doesn’t mean Gabriel Alves Braga is a bad fighter. On the contrary, he’s a great fighter who’s 10-0 in his professional career. Still, there’s a caveat regarding his record.
The 25-year-old is only fighting his third bout since joining the PFL. On his promotional debut, he defeated Ago Huskic by unanimous decision in a fight that was a part of the PFL Challenger Series. In his proper PFL debut, he beat Jesus Pinedo by a split decision.
Marlon Moraes vs. Gabriel Braga Offshore Odds & Pick
| Offshore Sportsbook | Marlon Moraes | Gabriel Braga |
|---|---|---|
| BetOnline | +175 | -215 |
| Bovada | +176 | -230 |
| BetUS | +210 | -280 |
| SportsBetting.ag | +175 | -215 |
| Pinnacle | +155 | -185 |
| MyBookie | n/a | n/a |
Marlon Moraes is really overdue for a win. The last time he won a fight was in 2019 when he beat Jose Aldo by a split decision. Since then, he lost six fights by KO/TKO, which suggests that he might be vulnerable to powerful punches and kicks. Nevertheless, we do believe that he’s got the skillset needed to outsmart Gabriel Braga, a fighter who’s fought 26 fights fewer than him.
Pick: Marlon Moraes to win
