Mets vs. Braves Prediction, Offshore Odds & Stats (Sep 24)

Published September 24, 2024 11:19 am

Updated September 24, 2024 11:19 am

Author Paul Lebowitz

Our Mets vs. Braves prediction is the Braves Money Line (-140).

The Mets and Braves are two of the four teams vying for three Wild Card spots in the National League.

Currently, the Braves are the odd team out trailing the Mets by two games heading into this crucial three-game series at Truist Park in Atlanta.

Offshore Odds: Braves Are Favored

Team	Run Line	Money Line	Total
Mets	+1.5 (-168)	+129	O 8 (-115)
Braves	-1.5 (+148)	-140	U 8 (-105)

Braves vs. Mets: Head-to-Head Stats

The Mets and Braves have split the first 10 games of their season series in 2024. The two teams battled for National League supremacy in the late 1990s through 2001 with the Braves invariably coming out on top.

In 2022, the Braves overcame a 10.5 game deficit in the standings to catch the Mets and win the division based on their head-to-head record. They are bitter rivals.

Before Betting

The Braves are fighting for their playoff lives. If the Mets win two of the three games, they will win the season series against the Braves meaning they own the tiebreaker if the two teams have the same record at season’s end. The Braves will likely miss the postseason for the first time since 2017.

The Mets have been scorching hot. Since Aug. 15, they have won 25 and lost 10. Even with star shortstop and Most Valuable Player candidate Francisco Lindor sidelined with a back issue, the Mets have not skipped a beat with the exhilarating rookie Luisangel Acuna taking over at shortstop.

He is the kid brother of injured Braves star and 2023 NL MVP Ronald Acuna Jr.

The younger Acuna is batting .379 with a 1.228 OPS and 3 home runs in 30 plate appearances since he was recalled from the minors.

The Mets have moved Luis Severino up in the starting rotation for the first game with it in mind that he will be available to start the final game of the season if the Mets need to win it to make the playoffs. Severino has had historic success against the Braves’ hitters except for Marcell Ozuna and Matt Olson.

The Mets are moving Luis Severino up in the rotation, I'm told. He'll start Tuesday in Atlanta, which allows him to come back on regular rest Sunday for Game 162 if that one means something.
— Anthony DiComo (@AnthonyDiComo) September 22, 2024

Ozuna is 2 for 4 vs. Severino with a home run. Olson is 4 for 10 with a double. He was enduring a subpar season before September, but the first baseman has gotten hot with a .333 average, a 1.054 OPS, 4 home runs and 21 RBIs for the month.

Righty Spencer Schwellenbach starts for the Braves. The 24-year-old rookie dominated the Mets in a late-July start at Citi Field throwing 7 innings, surrendering 2 hits and no runs while striking out 11.

Mets vs. Braves Prediction

Much attention is being paid to the Mets moving Severino up a day, but he is getting four days’ rest and his record is far superior with that amount of rest (7-2, 3.65 ERA) than five days’ rest (3-3, 4.61).

Mets closer Edwin Diaz threw 1.1 innings on Saturday and 2 innings on Sunday, saving both key wins against the Phillies. However, that is a heavy workload for a pitcher accustomed to pitching a single inning.

Still, the Mets have historically played poorly at Truist Park with a 25-36 record since it opened. For that matter, they had a nightmarish record at the Braves’ previous home of Turner Field (67-106). In fact, Atlanta has been labeled the Mets’ “house of horrors.”

Schwellenbach has been excellent in September. The Braves are desperate and raise their game in high-pressure battles with their New York rivals. Expect a tight game into the late innings and a Braves win.