Mets vs Dodgers NLCS Prediction, Offshore Odds, and Stats

Published October 13, 2024 12:39 am

Updated October 13, 2024 4:28 pm

Author Paul Lebowitz

Our Mets vs Dodgers NLCS prediction is for the Mets to win in six games.

Offshore Odds: Dodgers Are the Favorites to Win the NL Pennant

Team	Run Line	Money Line	Total
Mets	+1.5 (-160)	+140	O 8 (-115)
Dodgers	-1.5 (+140)	-153	U 8 (-105)

Head-To-Head: Two Teams With a Storied History

The Mets came into existence in 1962 as a pseudo-replacement in MLB for the Dodgers and Giants when both clubs fled New York for the West Coast in 1958. Their uniform color scheme and design combined those of the Dodgers and Giants. In their history, the Mets imported several stars from Dodgers and Giants including Duke Snider, Gil Hodges, and Willie Mays.

The teams have met in the postseason three times. Carried by Orel Hershiser and Kirk Gibson, Los Angeles upset the Mets in 1988 on their way to a World Series win. The Mets beat the Dodgers in the NLDS in 2006 and 2015.

The Dodgers won four of the six meetings between the teams this season.

Mets Have Changed Since the Last LA-NY Matchup

The last time the Mets and Dodgers played was on May 29. Los Angeles blew out New York 10-3 in the final game of their three-game sweep at Citi Field.

However, that game was notable because it was seen as a tipping point in the Mets’ fortunes. Pitcher Jorge Lopez drew manager Carlos Mendoza’s ire by throwing his glove into the stands in frustration. Lopez was subsequently released.

The last time the Mets and Dodgers faced off this season?

• Jorge López launched his glove into the stands as the Mets fell to 22-33 on the season.

• Francisco Lindor called a team meeting after the game which started the turn around to New York’s season. pic.twitter.com/1FDs5G3kxM
— Metsmerized Online (@Metsmerized) October 12, 2024

After that game, the Mets went on a 67-40 run to make the playoffs, defeated the Brewers and Phillies, and are now four games from an unlikely World Series.

Since that game, Mark Vientos became a crucial part of the offense; Jose Iglesias was added from the minor leagues and invigorated the team with his clutch hitting, defense, enthusiasm, and hit song “OMG” which became a club rallying cry; Kodai Senga has returned from injury for the playoffs; and they acquired Jesse Winker, Phil Maton, and Ryne Stanek.

World Series or Bust for the Dodgers

In 2023, the Diamondbacks swept the Dodgers in the NLDS. So they went on a spending spree to sign Shohei Ohtani, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, and Teoscar Hernandez. They traded for Tyler Glasnow and won 98 games.

Still, despite them winning nearly 100 games and another NL West title, the season was a slog. Their starting pitching has been decimated with Glasnow out for the season and Walker Buehler struggling as he returns from Tommy John surgery. Yamamoto was limited to 18 starts because of a shoulder issue.

They won a hard-fought (almost literally) five-game NLDS over the Padres and advanced to the NLCS for a date with the upstart Mets.

Although the Dodgers can all but punch their ticket to the playoffs every year, they have been nothing short of a disappointment given their star power and expectations. They have won one championship during the era of lauded president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman. That was during the 2020 season, shortened due to Covid.

It does not exactly taint their title, but it does make their sole championship seem like a lesser accomplishment.

Since they doled out nearly a billion dollars in contracts in the winter of 2023-24, the Dodgers need to win another title as validation.

Prediction: The Sum of the Mets Parts Will Beat the Favored Dodgers

Starting pitching was supposed to be their strength, but the Dodgers are bluffing their way through without Glasnow and a limited Yamamoto. Buehler has pitched better of late after an awful regular season, but historically, the Mets have pummelled him — particularly Pete Alonso (4 home runs in 15 at-bats) and Jesse Winker (2 home runs in 15 at-bats).

The Dodgers are quick to go to their bullpen and they have a deep and diverse corps of relievers. Still, the Mets are working with some magic of their own. Their starting pitching has been excellent led by Jose Quintana, Sean Manaea, and Luis Severino. Senga has also returned from injury. The bullpen has been very good with starter David Peterson being invaluable as a postseason reliever.

A key point to remember is the managers. The Dodgers’ Dave Roberts does precisely what the front office tells him to do and when there is a moment in which he needs to work without a net, he inevitably makes mistakes that have led to his team being bounced in the postseason every year but in 2020.

Mets manager Carlos Mendoza is granted freedom by president of baseball operations David Stearns and has played his hand beautifully all season.

Given these factors, the Mets vs Dodgers NLCS prediction is New York shocking Los Angeles in six games.