The NFL regular season is coming to a close. The day after the regular season ends — labeled Black Monday — is when teams part ways with their head coaches. Other coaches perceived as having done the best work in the league for the regular season will be voted on for NFL Coach of the Year by the Associated Press. The AP is the official NFL award. Our pick is Vikings head coach Kevin O’Connell.
Offshore Odds: NFL Coach of the Year
| Coach | Money Line |
|---|---|
| Kevin O’Connell, Vikings | -1200 |
| Dan Campbell, Lions | +500 |
| Andy Reid, Chiefs | +2200 |
| Dan Quinn, Commanders | +4000 |
Coach of the Year and Its Context
Fifty journalists who cover the league vote for Coach of the Year. Unlike awards like the Most Valuable Player, coaching is harder to quantify. Many past winners lost their jobs shortly thereafter.
Voters can use any criteria they want when selecting Coach of the Year. It depends on perspective. Some might vote based on overachievement. For example, if a team had been expected to be mediocre or outright bad and played better than its perceived talent level, the coach gets credit for it.
The problem is the people voting for the award randomly formulated those preseason expectations. If a voter thought Minnesota would have a poor season after its prospective starting quarterback J.J. McCarthy blew out his knee, head coach Kevin O’Connell will be lauded for their brilliant season with Sam Darnold at quarterback. Perhaps it’s justified.
Some coaches might look at the award as both an honor and a curse.
Here are the winners going back to 2018:
- 2023: Kevin Stefanski, Cleveland Browns
- 2022: Brian Daboll, New York Giants
- 2021: Mike Vrabel, Tennessee Titans
- 2020: Stefanski, Browns
- 2019: John Harbaugh, Baltimore Ravens
- 2018: Matt Nagy, Chicago Bears
As of this writing, Stefanski is widely expected to survive Black Monday, but there is a chance owner Jimmy Haslam III will make a change. The same is true for Daboll with owner John Mara.
The Titans fired Vrabel after consecutive losing seasons. The Bears fired Nagy after the 2021 season. In his defense, the Bears are again looking for a new head coach after firing his replacement Matt Eberflus at midseason.
Chuck Noll, the late Hall of Fame coach for the Steelers won four Super Bowls and never won AP Coach of the Year.
NFL Coach of the Year Prediction: Kevin O’Connell
Several coaches who are not listed have a case. They include Buffalo’s Sean McDermott, Pittsburgh’s Mike Tomlin, the LA Chargers’ Jim Harbaugh, Denver’s Sean Payton, Philadelphia’s Nick Sirianni, and the LA Rams’ Sean McVay.
Among the coaches listed to bet on, O’Connell’s Vikings overachieved the most. They signed Darnold as veteran insurance and he has thrown 35 touchdown passes to date.
Campbell had a subtly difficult job. After the Lions lost in the NFC Championship Game a year ago, he’s coaxed a better regular season from his troops and they’ve completely bought into his intense program.
Reid has won Coach of the Year once, more than 20 years ago with Philadelphia. The Chiefs have won two straight Super Bowls and he’s navigated them to the best record in the league, keeping them focused on their goal of three straight.
Quinn took a Commanders team that went 4-13 a year ago and, with a rookie quarterback and moderate changes to the roster, has his team in the playoffs.
Based on how voters generally decide, the overwhelming favorite is O’Connell and he will almost assuredly win.
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