In our NFL Recap, Week 16 clarified some playoff-related issues while muddying others. Some coaches are on the way to saving their jobs and making Black Monday not as dark as projected earlier in the season.
The Postseason Muddle the NFL Wants
For teams that have clinched their playoff spot or are on the verge of doing so, they have little to think about other than jockeying for position. Kansas City ended any lingering ambiguity in the AFC with Saturday’s win over Houston.
At 14-1, they have a two-game lead over Buffalo.
The Bills are the only team with a mathematical chance of catching Kansas City since Buffalo has the head-to-head tiebreaker after beating the Chiefs. Although KC’s schedule includes Pittsburgh and Denver — far tougher than Buffalo’s playing the Jets and New England — there’s little chance of them losing both games, which would need to happen for the Bills to catch them.
The Los Angeles Chargers have a 94% chance of making the playoffs, so they’re almost certainly making it.
Denver is at 76%.
Still alive are Indianapolis (15%), Miami (8%), and Cincinnati (7%). The Bengals are the team no one wants to play in a do or die game because they can light up the scoreboard with Joe Burrow. Their odds are long and they play Denver and Pittsburgh. Still, it’s possible.
In the NFC, Detroit’s Week 15 loss to Buffalo could cost them the top seed. Minnesota has lurked all season and now they’re tied in the NFC North. If Minnesota wins its last two games, the second of which is in Detroit, they get the top seed and their best chance at the Super Bowl in 25 years.
Tampa Bay’s loss to Dallas tied them with Atlanta in the NFC South. This is a problem for the Buccaneers because they lost both head-to-head matchups with the Falcons. The Bucs’ best hope is that Washington beats Atlanta in Week 17 and they beat Carolina and New Orleans. The Panthers have been playing excellent football of late, so Tampa will have a fight on its hands.
Black Monday Might Not Be as Dire as Predicted
Earlier this season, the NFL’s Black Monday looked like it be the league’s biggest coaching massacre since 2008. Among the expected casualties were the Bengals’ Zac Taylor, the Cowboys’ Mike McCarthy, and the Giants’ Brian Daboll (and GM Joe Schoen).
That was before teams made in-season changes. The Bears fired Matt Eberflus, the Saints fired Dennis Allen, and the Jets fired Robert Saleh (and GM Joe Douglas). There are fewer heads on the chopping block.
Despite Cowboys owner Jerry Jones’s reputation as a meddler, he has been beyond fair with his coaches since he parted with Jimmy Johnson in 1994. Head coach Mike McCarthy’s contract is expiring and Bill Belichick rumors were floating around. But Dallas has played hard in the face of adversity, won four of five, and could finish above .500 while severely damaging several teams’ playoff prospects. Players are openly lobbying for McCarthy to stay.
Taylor does some questionable things and the Bengals’ defense is horrendous. But he has overseen a brilliant season from Burrow. Cincinnati has been unlucky and might still sneak into the playoffs. It’s hard to see Taylor getting fired in part because owner Mike Brown doesn’t like paying people not to work.
Belichick taking the job as head coach of the University of North Carolina took the only clear option off the board for Giants owner John Mara. The Giants’ tanking in the last third of the season makes clear that Mara okayed them playing QB roulette dumping Daniel Jones and rotating Drew Lock and Tommy DeVito. The brain trust will get another year with Daboll’s chosen quarterback and a very high draft pick.
The tanking and playoff battles make it harder to gauge winners and losers as well as point spreads.
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