The NFL week 7 is going to have a tough act to follow after the Bills vs. Chiefs thriller, and at first glance the slate doesn’t look great. One practice that sports bettors should try to work into their handicapping is to predict what the lines should be before seeing them. If what the oddsmakers release is way off from what you envision, it’s a great way to identify trap lines as well as find value the other way. Here is the NFL week 7 odds first glance.
- Saints at Cardinals, Thursday – Predicted: Arizona -3.5, Actual: Arizona -2
Arizona is at home on the short week Thursday, but they are also in front of some pretty disgruntled fans following a 19-9 loss to the Seahawks. The Cardinals are going to get a lot of public action with this opening line which seems on the low side.
- Packers at Commanders – Predicted Packers -6.5, Actual: Packers -5
Aaron Rodgers took a pretty good beating in Green Bay’s loss to the Jets, but he should be alright for the Washington game. The Commanders have a couple extra days of rest after playing last Thursday, but are probably going to be turning to Taylor Heinicke at QB with Carson Wentz facing a finger injury. Heinicke is a fan favorite so there could be a lot of people taking the points here.
- Browns at Ravens – Predicted: Ravens -3, Actual: Ravens -6
The Browns had a nice narrative going that sure they were losing, but in very close games. Cleveland’s 2-3 start came with the three defeats being by a total of 6 points, but that’s out the window following the 38-15 home beating at the hands of New England. Baltimore couldn’t get the win against the Giants even as -6 point favorites, so this point spread seems high in a division game.
- Bucs at Panthers – Predicted: Bucs -8.5, Actual: Bucs -10
Carolina went into the half up 10-7 against the Rams on Sunday before they seemingly got the call from ownership that said, “we’re trying to quietly tank here.”. Los Angeles went on to pick up a 24-10 win and even though Tampa Bay was upset 20-18 as -9.5 favorites in Pittsburgh the Bucs seem poised to bounce back in a big way here.
- Falcons at Bengals – Predicted: Bengals -4.5 , Actual: Bengals -6.5
Oddsmakers weren’t as impressed by Atlanta’s 28-14 win over San Francisco on Sunday as +3.5 home underdogs, making the Bengals what will likely be a TD or higher favorite by the time the game kicks off. That’s not necessarily a knock on the Falcons, and more of a hat tip to Joe Burrow’s big game (300 yards passing, 3 pass TD, 1 rush TD) in the 30-26 win over the Saints.
- Lions at Cowboys: Predicted Dallas -6, Actual N/A
Dallas is in a dogfight with Philadelphia (20-17), but it would be hard to see them favored by any less than 6 even with the Lions coming off a bye. Detroit was shut out 29-0 by New England in their last game, and if Dak Prescott does indeed return to the Cowboys lineup we could see this number climb to 8.5 or higher.
- Giants at Jaguars – Predicted: Giants -1.5 , Actual: Jaguars -3
I thought maybe the offshore oddsmakers might fold and make the 5-1 Giants a road favorite in Duval country, but they’ve actually got Jacksonville favored by a field goal at open. Expect the public to pound New York here following their win over the Ravens on Sunday as +6 home underdogs, but if the line stays firm it’s Jacksonville with the unlikely win.
- Colts at Titans – Predicted: Tennessee -1.5 , Actual: Tennessee -2
The Titans are on a three game win streak, at home, coming off a bye, and against a Colts team that needed a 32-yard TD pass with 0:17 left to avoid a third straight loss to the Jaguars. Great spot for a trap play line where everybody hammers the Titans and Indy gets an inexplicable win.
- Texans at Raiders – Predicted: Raiders -10.5, Actual: Raiders -7
Thought the oddsmakers would give the Raiders a bit more love for NFL week 7 odds, but this could also rise a lot during the week. Las Vegas is coming off a bye, and their 1-4 record features all four defeats coming by one score. Houston had a bye last week and can keep games relatively close themselves, but at least expect the hook to be added to get LV to -7.5 otherwise this is a trap play that should be taking the Texans.
- Jets at Broncos: Predicted Broncos -1.5, Actual
This line could be interesting once it’s released with the delay coming from the Broncos playing on Monday night at the Chargers. If Denver has another bad showing like their 12-9 home loss to the Colts the last time out you can’t make them too big of a favorite against the 4-2 Jets who just beat Green Bay by 17 in Lambeau.
- Chiefs at 49ers – Predicted: Chiefs -2.5 , Actual: Chiefs -3
Kansas City and Buffalo delivered on Sunday afternoon, and despite their 24-20 loss you still have to make the Chiefs right around a FG favorite in San Francisco in NFL week 7 odds. The 49ers will likely go into Sunday’s game still very injured on the defensive line, which was a huge problem in a 28-14 loss to the Falcons in week 6.
- Seahawks at Chargers: Predicted Chargers -6, Actual N/A
This line won’t be released until after the Chargers play on Monday night, but LAC should be nearly a TD favorite in week 7 barring any major injuries.
- Steelers at Dolphins, Sunday Night – Predicted: Dolphins -3.5, Actual: Dolphins -6.5
A field goal off on this one as I thought oddsmakers would respect Pittsburgh’s 20-18 win over Tampa Bay a bit more especially as the Dolphins lost 24-16 at home to the Vikings. This line is probably inflated a bit more with the likely return of Tua Tagovailoa who is out of concussion protocols. At early glance the points seems to be the way to go.
- Bears at Patriots, Monday: Predicted Patriots -6.5, Actual: Patriots -7.5
The big question here is if New England sticks with Bailey Zappe who has led New England to two straight impressive victories or honors the ‘you don’t lose your job to injury’ and reinserts a possibly healthy Mac Jones at QB in NFL week 7 odds? Either way at first glance it seems like the Patriots have value up into the double digits as Bill Belichick is going to draw up a defense that absolutely humiliates the Chicago offense.
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