Despite the clubs being rivals since the early-1960s, the New York Mets (89-73) and the Philadelphia Phillies (95-67) have never met in the postseason. In fact, there have been few seasons in which both were legitimate contenders simultaneously. In 2024, the Phillies won the season series 7-6. Our Mets vs Phillies Prediction in the NLDS is for the Mets to win in 5 games.
| Team | Run Line | Money Line | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mets | +1.5 (-144) | +160 | O 7 (-115) |
| Phillies | -1.5 (+124) | -175 | U 7 (-105) |
Streaking Mets Get Surprise Pitching Boost
Mets manager Carlos Mendoza made a stunning announcement in his pre-series press conference by naming Kodai Senga as the club’s Game 1 starting pitcher in Philadelphia. The Phillies have the home field advantage for the series. Except for one start and 5.1 innings, Senga missed the entire 2024 regular season with a strained shoulder he suffered in spring training and a calf injury suffered in that sole start.
After a frenzied week in which they were forced to play a doubleheader right before the playoffs started, the Mets have every right to be exhausted. New York has kept their mind and emotions on baseball while the Phillies have been able to take to easy. That could lead to a slow start for Philadelphia.
Alonso’s game-winning home run could relax the big first baseman and help him break completely free of his extended slump. With Senga back in the fold, the Mets have greater flexibility with their starting rotation. David Peterson also showed nerve in closing Game 3 against the Brewers.
Phillies Division Title Gave Them Time to Rest
For the most part, the Phillies are a veteran team. The week off will undoubtedly benefit them physically. With Bryce Harper, J.T. Realmuto, Nick Castellanos, Kyle Schwarber, Trea Turner, Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola all north of 30, any amount of rest will be a positive.
Harper has extensive playoff experience with 16 home runs and a .996 OPS in 215 career plate appearances. He also has a history of hammering the Mets with 39 career home runs against the team from Queens.
The Phillies core has played in plenty of playoff games. In the past two years, the Phillies advanced to the World Series in 2022 and the NLCS in 2023. They bounced the Braves in both years. They are unlikely to wilt under the spotlight.
Mets vs Phillies Prediction: Mets in 5
The teams are evenly matched offensively. Even though the Phillies have greater star power throughout their batting order and stronger pitching, the Mets getting Senga back could help to mitigate that advantage. Both bullpens are also comparable.
The one area where the Mets have a clear advantage is in the field. The Mets are excellent defensively. Glove work is an area the Phillies compromised to get offensive production and it might end up costing them.
New York is now playing with what amounts to house money since no one expected them to be here after a rough start to the season. There may be some supernatural aspects as there were for the club in 1969, 1973 and 1986 — enough to win this MLB series in 5 games.
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