It’s time for Week 3 of the 2023 PFL, which is headlined by the lightweight clash between Olivier Aubin-Mercier (17-5) and Shane Burgos (15-3). Both fighters have UFC experience, so there’s every reason to expect a real spectacle on Friday evening.
Before Betting on Olivier Aubin-Mercier vs. Shane Burgos
Olivier Aubin-Mercier is the winner of last year’s PFL Lightweight tournament. He won the title (and a $1 million prize) after beating Stevie Ray by knockout. It was only his second win by this method. The Canadian fighter prefers beating his opponents by submission.
Eight of his 17 wins happened this way, but he’s still without a single submission win since coming to the PFL from the UFC in 2021. In fact, excluding the last season’s title bout, all of his PFL fights were won by a decision.
When it comes to Shane Burgos, he too has had his share of decision wins over the last couple of years. In fact, he won both of his last two fights by decision. As a result, he now has five wins by each method – KO/TKO, submission, and decision.
Olivier Aubin-Mercier vs. Shane Burgos Offshore Odds & Pick
| Offshore Sportsbook | Olivier Aubin-Mercier | Shane Burgos |
|---|---|---|
| BetOnline | +102 | -122 |
| Bovada | n/a | n/a |
| BetUS | -105 | -125 |
| SportsBetting.ag | +102 | -122 |
| Pinnacle | n/a | n/a |
| MyBookie | n/a | n/a |
Even though Burgos has a (slightly) better record than Aubin-Mercier, when the betting markets opened, he was the favorite to win the PFL Week 3 main event. It probably had to do something with the fact that his opponent is making his featherweight debut on Friday.
Burgos is moving up a weight class, meaning that he might have problems dealing with his opponent’s power. Still, we do believe that he’s got the skillset needed to dominate the PFL. In fact, he’d probably do very well in the UFC if the promotion decided to renew his contract. According to Dana White, it was a huge mistake to let Hurricane go.
Pick: Shane Burgos to win by decision
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