The New England Patriots (3-11) visit the Buffalo Bills (11-3). Buffalo is unlikely to catch Kansas City for the best record in the AFC. Now, they are trying to lock up the number two seed. Our Patriots vs Bills prediction is for the teams to score over 46.5 points.
Head-to-head, the Patriots lead with a record of 78-50-1.
Offshore Odds: Buffalo Favored by Two Touchdowns
| Team | Spread | Money Line | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Patriots | +14 (-108) | +750 | O 46.5 (-110) |
| Bills | -14 (-112) | -1200 | U 46.5 (-110) |
New England is Having Its Worst Season Since 1992
It’s been a long time since the Patriots have been this terrible. Not since 1992 — the year before they hired Bill Parcells as head coach in a desperation move — has New England won so few games.
On a positive note, their terribleness that season got them the first overall pick in the 1993 NFL Draft. They selected Drew Bledsoe and were in the playoffs two years later. Two years after that, they were in the Super Bowl.
Like the Bill Belichick head coaching hire was questioned or outright ridiculed in 2000, the only way to know whether Jerod Mayo was the right choice is to check back in after three or four years.
Fortunately for them, Drake Maye is showing that they do not need a quarterback.
By now, their main objective is playing hard against contending teams and perhaps putting a scare into them while looking toward the future. They have lost four straight and, judging by their upcoming opponents — Buffalo twice sandwiching the LA Chargers — they will probably lose those too.
Buffalo Has Been on a Scoring Binge
The Bills have scored 30 or more points in eight straight games. In the last two, they scored 42 against the LA Rams and 48 against Detroit. They lost to the Rams and beat the Lions.
It was the loss to the Rams that essentially ended their quest to catch the Kansas City Chiefs at the top of the conference. KC is now 14-1, unlikely to lose their last two games.
Quarterback Josh Allen is the presumed MVP. He has done it all in 2024. The Bills’ problem, however, is defense. Surrendering 40+ points in back-to-back games is a significant concern. Their defensive numbers overall are respectable enough, but to be gashed the way they’ve been over the past two games needs to be addressed.
The next three weeks will be spent getting healthy and trying to stay ahead of Pittsburgh and Baltimore in the conference. It is of note that Baltimore has the tiebreaker over Buffalo due to its win over them in Week 4.
Patriots vs Bills Prediction: The Spread is High, but the Teams Will Score a Lot
A 14-point spread is heavy no matter who is playing, how good one team is, or how bad the other team is. Buffalo’s scoring machine will not be stopped by New England and their defense is still shaky. Expect the teams to surpass 46.5 points.
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