The Miami Dolphins (4-6) host the New England Patriots (3-8). Miami has won two straight games to reach the periphery of playoff contention while New England is building for the future. Our Patriots vs Dolphins prediction is for underdog New England to keep the game close enough to cover the 7-point spread.
During the Bill Belichick/Tom Brady years, New England had an 8-10 record in Miami. It was the Bermuda Triangle for the Patriots when they were the dominating team in the NFL. Belichick and Brady are gone and Miami is the on-paper better team.
Head-to-head overall, Miami leads with a 63-55 record.
Offshore Odds: Miami is a Touchdown Favorite at Home
| Team | Spread | Money Line | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Patriots | +7 (-103) | +290 | O 46 (-110) |
| Dolphins | -7 (-117) | -360 | U 46 (-110) |
Miami’s Playoff Hopes Are Unlikely but Possible
The Dolphins had high hopes before the season. Quarterback Tua Tagovailoa’s latest concussion and a 2-6 start seemed to ruin their lofty goals. However, with Tua back on the field, Miami has looked closer to their preseason blueprint. They have won two straight and their schedule is moderately favorable to reach nine wins and a potential playoff berth.
Tua has been efficient and effective in his four starts since he returned from injury. His game is timing and accuracy.
Despite the two wins over the Rams and Raiders, Miami has not been running the ball effectively. They need to establish the run with De’Von Achaine and Raheem Mostert against New England, ranked 20th in defensive rushing yards per game.
Miami’s defense has been solid all season, though it was obscured during their losing streak. New England has trouble scoring, ranked 30th in points per game.
New England’s Growth Involves Being a Spoiler
The Patriots lost 15-10 to the Tua-less Dolphins in Week 5, falling to 1-4. They lost the next two and were 1-6 before splitting the next four including a dominating performance in Chicago.
Rookie quarterback Drake Maye is finding his way and the defense has responded to head coach Jerod Mayo calling them out for soft play. The best hope for New England to win in Miami is to keep the score close, pressure Tua, contain the run game, and hope the hex is reversed now that Miami is the superior team with playoff hopes.
New England is putting up a fight against playoff hopefuls. In Week 11, they lost 28-22 to the Rams. But they had the ball with 2:14 remaining and a chance to win it with a late drive. Maye threw an interception, letting Los Angeles run out the clock.
They are not an easy assignment.
Patriots vs Dolphins Prediction: New England Keeps it Close
Miami had its most convincing win of the season in Week 11, 34-19 over Las Vegas. Still, their games have been close since Tua’s return. While New England is young and rebuilding, they battle.
Miami should win, but it will likely be within the 7-point spread.
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