Our MLB prediction for the Phillies vs. Mets include Mets to run the line.
The first-place Philadelphia Phillies travel to New York to open a four-game series against the Mets, who are currently in a wild-card playoff position.
Offshore Odds
| Team | Run Line | Money Line | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Philadelphia Phillies | +1.5 -170 | +125 | O 8 -115 |
| New York Mets | -1.5 +150 | -136 | U 8 -105 |
Before Betting
The Phillies lead the National League in wins, slightly ahead of the injury-ravaged Dodgers. They hope to secure the number one seed for the postseason.
The Mets lead the Braves in the Wild Card standings and are jockeying with the Diamondbacks for a higher seed.
Taijuan Walker is the starting pitcher for the Phillies. Luis Severino starts for the Mets.
Walker, who spent two years with the Mets and was an All-Star in 2021, has had a disappointing and injury-plagued season for the Phillies in 2024.
The 32-year-old has a 6.29 ERA in 17 appearances (14 starts). He has allowed 97 hits. He has been extremely vulnerable to the home run ball surrendering 20 in 78.2 innings.
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Returning to action in mid-August after having missed 43 games with an injured right index finger, he pitched 3 innings against the Mets on Sep. 14, threw 37 pitches, and surrendered 3 hits and zero runs.
It is reasonable to expect Walker to serve as an “opener” for this start and not throw more than 40 or so pitches as the Phillies decide who should be on their postseason roster and what their role will be.
His numbers head-to-head against Mets batters show that Pete Alonso is 3 for 15 with 2 doubles and 1 home run, J.D. Martinez is 7 for 18 with 1 home run and an OPS of 1.032, and Brandon Nimmo is 3 for 12 with 1 home run.
Severino surrendered 3 hits and 3 runs while striking out 5 in his previous outing against the Phillies.
Bryce Harper hit 2 home runs off Severino in that game. This was the first game in which Harper had faced Severino.
Nick Castellanos is 6 for 18 with 1 walk and no extra-base hits. Kyle Schwarber is 2 for 7 with 2 doubles.
Phillies vs. Mets Prediction
The teams are bitter rivals, but the Mets have a favorable pitching matchup and need the win more than the Phillies do.
If the Mets get an early lead and Severino has a solid start, expect the Phillies to concede in the middle innings after getting Walker his work.
Still, the Phillies offense is formidable and will score at least 3. Be on the lookout for home runs from Harper and/or Schwarber.
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