UFC 306 a.k.a. Riyadh Season Noche UFC or UFC Sphere is supposed to be one of the biggest spectacles in the 30-year-long history of Dana White’s promotion. This goes especially if the main event – Sean O’Malley vs. Merab Dvalishvili UFC Bantamweight title fight – proves to be a banger. So, will it?
Our O’Malley vs. Dvalishvili prediction is that it will, but before you bet any money on the UFC Sphere headliner, make sure to read our analysis of the fight.
Before Betting on O’Malley vs. Dvalishvili UFC 306 Fight
Sean O’Malley is, hands down, the best striker in the UF Bantamweight Division. The champ is 18-1-1 overall, with two-thirds of his wins happening by KO/TKO. That’s no surprise as “Suga” lands 7.63 significant strikes a minute. That’s actually the third-highest number among active male fighters in the UFC.
The last time he defeated someone by KO/TKO was last year when he did it to Aljamain Sterling in the fight for the title. Since then, he’s fought once more, defending his title against Marlon Vera, whom he beat by unanimous decision. In that fight, he landed 230 strikes but still failed to get a finish.
Our UFC 306 prediction is that he won’t do it against Merab either. It’s because Dvalishvili is one of the toughest fighters on the UFC roster. The Georgian fighter is famous for being someone who never gives up. That’s why he’s nicknamed “The Machine”.
This guy can take a lot of beating without getting hurt. Marlon Moraes is the only fighter who managed to knock him down, but that didn’t work – Merab got up and ended up getting instant revenge and winning by KO.
It was actually only his fourth finish ever. He’s 17-4 overall with 13 wins by decision. That’s no surprise actually if you know how he likes to fight. Merab likes to land plenty of takedowns and keep his opponents pinned to the ground.
Merab is actually the UFC fighter with the most takedowns landed (79) and we predict he’ll land at least a couple of them at the Vegas Sphere. But will that be enough to get a win over O’Malley?
O’Malley vs. Dvalishvili UFC Noche Offshore Odds & Pick
| Fighter | Odds |
|---|---|
| Sean O’Malley | +100 |
| Merab Dvalishvili | -120 |
Our prediction is that Merab will ragdoll O’Malley in their UFC Noche fight. Sure, the defending champ is a hell of a striker, but he just isn’t powerful enough to get an early stoppage.
Instead, we think Merab will take him down – which should be no problem as O’Malley’s TD defense is just 62% – and keep on doing the same for the full 25 minutes. In the end, the judges will have no other option but to score in Dvalishvili’s favor.
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