Much like the coin toss prop, one of the best and worst things about the Super Bowl LVII first TD scorer wager is that it’s over early – except for Patriots 13 Rams 6 back in 2019 where the first TD didn’t come until the 4th quarter. It’s nice to chalk up a win early, but you also don’t have that hope and optimism that you would with say, an anytime TD scorer bet.
Super Bowl LVII should be fairly high scoring and to be honest the 50.5 total seems on the low side. Expect a TD very early in this game (probability for first score being a TD is 67.8% (-210) but the big question is who gets it?
Super Bowl LVII First TD Scorer
Travis Kelce +600 – Not horrible +600 odds on Kelce considering he is the overwhelming chalk play after catching 12 of Patrick Mahomes’ 41 TD passes during the regular season. Kelce has 3 TDs this postseason – but at the same time the Eagles know he is by far KC’s #1 target and should blanket him.
Jalen Hurts +700 – Just to note this prop only counts as a Hurts run and not a TD pass, but it’s still very likely after he led the team with 13 scores on the ground during the regular season and has added two more in the playoffs. If the Eagles get to the 1-yard line on the first drive of the game, this is a given.
Isiah Pachecho +800 – KC’s potent passing game opens up a lot of opportunities in the run game as you can tell by Pachecho’s 5.5 ypc on the ground this postseason. Pachecho could very well get the first TD, but this should be double the odds considering the Chiefs haven’t scored a rushing TD yet in their two playoff games.
Kenneth Gainwell +2000 – Miles Sanders is +750 to score the first TD for Philadelphia but if you’ve got Sanders, Hurts, and Gainwell all as mouths to feed in this backfield you might as well take the player with the better payout. Gainwell has run the ball well this postseason, breaking off a 35 yard TD late in the game against the Giants and getting a hard-fought 48 yards on 14 carries against a very good 49ers defense.
AJ Brown +800 – The Eagles gave Brown a 4-year, $100 million extension with the idea of getting to this game, and although Dallas Goedert (+1000) and DeVonta Smith (+1100) could very easily catch the Eagles first TD – or more likely its a run – you have to think Philly wants to get their big dog a very special score.
| Player | Odds |
|---|---|
| Travis Kelce | +600 |
| Jalen Hurts | +700 |
| Miles Sanders | +750 |
| Isiah Pachecho | +800 |
| AJ Brown | +800 |
| DeVonta Smith | +1100 |
| Dallas Goedert | +1000 |
| Jerick McKinnon | +1200 |
| Marquez Valdes-Scantling | +1500 |
| Kadarius Toney | +1500 |
| JuJu Smith-Schuster | +1800 |
| Kenneth Gainwell | +2000 |
First TD Scorer Pick
If the Eagles score first it’s likely going to be a run, while the Chiefs will probably pass for their initial TD. Kelce is too easy of a play, but Marquez Valdez-Scantling has caught a couple of TD passes this postseason as well and has great +1500 odds. At the same time, Gainwell could just as easily score first for Philly as Hurts or Sanders so he’s the pick on that side with the better odds.
Picks:
