Texans vs Chiefs Prediction: KC Closes in on AFC’s Top Seed (Dec 21)

The Houston Texans (9-5) visit the Kansas City Chiefs (13-1). It is the first Saturday in which NFL games will be played in 2024. Our Texans vs Chiefs prediction is for underdog Houston to cover the 3.5-point spread.

Head-to-head, Kansas City has won nine of the 14 meetings between the teams.

Offshore Odds: Mahomes’ Ankle Issue Keeps the Spread Close

Houston Can Still Overtake Pittsburgh in the Conference

Houston’s 20-12 win over Miami combined with Indianapolis’ 31-13 loss in Denver gave the Texans the AFC South title for the second straight season. Although catching Buffalo for the number two seed in the conference is unlikely, they are only one game behind Pittsburgh for the third seed.

The win over Miami was hard-fought and included another Texans’ hard hit that KO’d an opposing player when safety Calen Bullock drilled Dolphins wide receiver Grant Dubose.

While this was not egregious like the Azzez Al-Shaair hit on Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence that got Al-Shaair a three-game suspension, Bullock was flagged for unnecessary roughness. He was apologetic after the game.

Houston head coach DeMeco Ryans was a linebacker in his playing days and his team is getting a reputation for questionable hits. It will draw a watchful eye from the league and game officials. Any play that looks like it’s on the line of propriety can lead to a penalty. That will be costly, especially against the Chiefs, who tend to get the benefit of the doubt on calls. In the playoffs, it is scrutinized further.

This has detracted from an excellent overall season. C.J. Stroud is having a Pro Bowl year and their defense is opportunistic. This is a tough matchup for the Chiefs.

Patrick Mahomes Expected to Play Despite Ankle Injury

After spraining his ankle against the Browns, Patrick Mahomes has been practicing and is expected to play. On another positive note, wide receiver Marquise “Hollywood” Brown was activated after missing the entire season with a shoulder injury. He is set to make his Chiefs debut.

Kansas City has a two-game lead over Buffalo for the top spot in the conference. Unless they collapse, they will sew up the number one spot and make the road to their three-peat much smoother.

Houston has the third-best takeaway differential in the league. This could be problematic for KC if Wentz is under center. Their running game needs to be productive, but Isiah Pacheco has been feeling his way through since he returned from a fractured fibula.

Texans vs Chiefs Prediction: Another Close Game for KC

Mahomes will likely be limited in his mobility and the Chiefs will not take chances with him if he looks out of sorts. Houston needs this game more than KC does and most of the Chiefs’ games have been uncomfortably close. Expect more of the same as underdog Houston keeps it within 3.5 points.

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• Regular Season (NFL)