The UEFA Champions League semis will close on Tuesday and Wednesday with the rematches that take place in England, to be precise, Manchester and London. Man City awaits PSG, while Chelsea faces Real Madrid.
Manchester City vs PSG
- Etihad Stadium, Manchester, England
- 3pm ET, May 4, Tuesday
The first leg saw the Citizens turning the result upside down and defeating the Saints in Paris, 1-2. After a bit slower start of that match, City would easily shift into a higher gear and roll over the hosts, who didn’t know what happened. Pochettino’s counter-attacks didn’t work at all, and that might have been the primary reason why PSG wasted a lead.
Also, the defensive part of Paris Saint-Germain’s team is pretty unstable lately, and allows goal frequently. Did you know that the Saints had just one clean sheet in the previous 10 games? Neither did we until analyzing this event. Being average in UCL semis at any line of the team is a massive problem.
On the other side, City’s games have moderate efficiency, meaning 2 or 3 goals in most of the matches this year, especially in the latest 10. Eight of them finished in that range.
Our prediction for this match includes the same efficiency, 2 or 3 scores. Man City will look to lower the tempo of play and make this one a dull affair, keeping the ball in their possession. PSG doesn’t know how to dictate the tempo once having the ball in their feet, and all this is, for us, a good reason to bet on moderate efficiency.
Pick: 2 or 3 goals -105
Chelsea vs Real Madrid
- Stamford Bridge, London, England
- 3pm ET, May 5, Wednesday
Real squeezed out a draw in the first leg, 1-1, leveling the score and closing out the game until the end. This was the 19th consecutive match for Los Blancos in which they haven’t lost, which is pretty amazing, having in mind how they played badly in recent times. They would drop several points in La Liga over the previous contests, which complicated their title-defense plans.
Real plays very rigid football these days, having just one game in the past six with over 2.5 goals, and only two with both teams scoring. As the season nears to its end, Real starts playing more and more defensive-minded and cautious.
Chelsea plays like that since Thomas Tuchel sat on its bench, with the German completely changing their style of play. We are more than positive that the Blues have the best defense in Europe right now. For instance, the game against Real was the single one in the past five with them conceding. During Tuchel’s reign, Chelsea had just a handful of games in which they allowed a goal.
We would follow the pattern here, meaning to bet on under 2.5 goals. This is going to be an ultra-hard match where both Tuchel and Zidane already have a set of tactics for each part of the game. The odds on low efficiency are not that high, but in our opinion, it is safe.
Pick: Under 2.5 goals
