UFC 310 Predictions: Who’ll Shine in Promotion’s Final PPV of 2024?

Our UFC 310 predictions are that the final PPV event of the year will be a real banger and that we’ll see plenty of exciting fights. The event is scheduled for Saturday, December 7, and will feature some really spicy bouts, starting with the main event, Alexandre Pantoja vs. Kai Asakura.

UFC 310 will also feature a title eliminator fight between undefeated welterweights, Shavkat Rakhmonov and Ian Machado Garry. We’ll also see a clash between No. 2 and No. 3 in the heavyweight division, Ciryl Gane and Alexander Volkov.

In this post, we’re going to analyze the most interesting UFC 310 fights before sharing our top picks.

Can Kai Asakura Claim Gold on His UFC Debut?

December 7 is when Kai Asakura (21-4) will make his UFC debut. That wouldn’t be strange if his debut wasn’t in the title fight with defending champion Alexandre Pantoja (28-5). So why did Dana White and the Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) do this?

Asakura is a superstar in Japan, where he was a Rizin Bantamweight champ on three separate occasions. He’s a hell of a striker who’s got 13 wins by KO/TKO in his portfolio. When it comes to his losses, three of them happened by that method.

One of those was against Manel Kape in a Rizin title fight, after which Kape moved back to the UFC only to lose to Pantoja on his second debut.

Another KO/TKO loss suffered by Asakura happened against Kyoji Horiguchi, who’s been Pantoja’s training partner for the past couple of months.

We’re not saying we’re 100% confident Pantoja will knock him out, but we do think “The Cannibal” has what it takes to keep the UFC Flyweight title in his possession.

Shavkat Rakhmonov or Ian Machado Garry – Who’ll Suffer Their First-Ever Loss?

Looking at the Rakhmonov vs. Garry odds, you’d think the Kazakh fighter is levels above his Irish opponent. But we think the two are actually pretty similar, both in terms of skills and experience.

Rakhmonov is 18-0, with six wins in the UFC, while Garry is 15-0 overall and 8-0 in the UFC. In his last three fights, Rakhmonov defeated Neil Magny, Geoff Neal, and 40-year-old Stephen Thompson.

Garry’s last three fights saw him defeat Magny and Neal, as well as Michael Page, who’s probably better than any opponent Rakhmonov’s faced so far.

The only major difference between these two is that Rakhmonov has a 100% finish rate – 8 wins by KO/TKO and 10 by submission. Meanwhile, Garry has 7 wins by KO/TKO, 1 by submission, and 7 by decision.

For all these reasons, we think Rakhmonov vs. Garry really is a coin toss, but given that there’s better value on the Irishman, we’re going to back him.

Ciryl Gane Likes Slaying Giants Like Alexander Volkov

Alexander Volkov is 6’7, which makes him three inches taller than Ciryl Gane. However, he’s got a one-inch shorter reach than the Frenchman. This means that “Bon Gamin” can definitely reach his head.

And our prediction is that he’ll do it. He’s a fantastic striker, with a background in Muay Thai, who lands 5.49 significant strikes per minute – the third-highest number among active heavyweights.

His Achilles Heel is wrestling, which is what cost him in the fight with Jon Jones. Still, that shouldn’t be a problem on Saturday because Volkov, too, prefers fighting upright. He also lands plenty of punches and kicks, but he just isn’t as agile as Gane.

The first time they fought – in June 2021 – Volkov landed 115 strikes (fun fact: he hasn’t gone over 100 since) but got hit 135 times. We predict something similar will happen at UFC 310.

Can Vicente Luque Prove Oddsmakers Wrong?

Vicente Luque is a welterweight veteran who’s fought the who’s who of the 170lb division. He hasn’t done much lately, making MMA fans think he’s past his prime. But he’s only 33, which in the UFC universe, is still pretty young.

He was supposed to fight Nick Diaz at UFC 310, but he pulled out of the fight a few weeks before the event. To save the day, Themba Gorimbo stepped in.

He’s only had a few weeks to prepare for the fight, but he’s probably in very good shape given that his last fight happened in October. He rag-dolled Niko Price in that fight, which is probably why he’s a -150 favorite against Luque. Still, if there’s a guy who can upset those odds, it’s “The Silent Assassin.”

UFC 310 Predictions for Remaining Fights

• Bryce Mitchell (-700) vs. Kron Gracie (+500) – Mitchell
• Nate Landwehr (-141) vs. Choi Doo-ho (+121) – Landwehr
• Dominick Reyes (-330) vs. Anthony Smith (+270) – Reyes
• Movsar Evloev (-242) vs. Aljamain Sterling (+207) – Evloev
• Randy Brown (+199) vs. Bryan Battle (-234) – Battle
• Chris Weidman (-115) vs. Eryk Anders (-105) – Weidman
• Cody Durden (+125) vs. Joshua Van (-145) – Van
• Clay Guida (+700) vs. Chase Hooper (-1000) – Hooper
• Michael Chiesa (+105) vs. Max Griffin (-125) – Griffin
• Kennedy Nzechukwu (-585) vs. Lukasz Brzeski (+410) – Nzechukwu

As you can see, most of our UFC 310 picks are favorites, the only exception being Luque who we feel could stage an upset. We don’t think there will be too many other upsets, but we do call for caution for a couple of fights.

The Bryce Mitchell vs. Kron Gracie fight looks like a potential parlay buster. Mitchell’s last fight saw him end up trembling on the floor after a brutal KO by Emmett. Luckily for him, Kron Gracie is a horrible boxer, but he’s been trained by Nate Diaz.

Plus, if the fight goes to the ground, his BJJ genes might bring him a submission win. After all, he’s a descendant of the Gracie brothers who invented Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu.

Another UFC 310 fight we recommend staying away from is the Movsar Evloev vs. Aljamain Sterling fight, in which Aljo’s experience might help him end Evloev’s undefeated run.

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