UFC Vegas Predictions – Top Picks for First Event of 2025

Looking for UFC Vegas predictions? We’ve got you covered for the first event of 2025.

Headlined by Mackenzie Dern vs. Amanda Ribas 2, this isn’t your ordinary Apex event. We predict it’s going to be a banger, with each fight bringing plenty of excitement not only to MMA fans but bettors as well.

We’ll now analyze the most interesting fights in detail, before sharing our top picks for all bouts scheduled for Saturday, January 11.

Mackenzie Dern Seeks Revenge Against Amanda Ribas

Mackenzie Dern (14-5) is the only female fighter in the UFC with a 3^rd-degree black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu. Her grappling skills, however, didn’t help her much in the first fight with Amanda Ribas (13-55).

Ribas absolutely destroyed her, landing 74 significant strikes while absorbing just 20. She also made two takedowns, without suffering any.

But that was more than five years ago when both were still just starting in the UFC. In fact, that was Dern’s first loss in this promotion. Since then, she’s really upped her game, both grappling and striking-wise.

Actually, the last two fights that she won, she won by out-striking her opponents. We think she’s ready to throw everything she’s got at Ribas in Saturday’s fight, which is why we’ll go against oddsmakers on this one and back the underdog.

Santiago Ponzinibbio vs. Carlston Harris – Possible Fight of the Night?

Our prediction for the UFC Vegas co-main event is that it’s going to be a bloody affair that might win the Fight of the Night bonus. The thing is that both fighters are in desperate need of a win to stay relevant in the UFC.

Since the start of the decade, Santiago Ponzinibbio (29-8) is 2-5, and given that he’s already 38, another loss could mean the end of his UFC career. Carlston Harris (19-6) is in a better situation, but his confidence too isn’t at its highest level after a nasty KO loss to Khaos Williams last May.

While both fighters love finishing opponents, our prediction is that they’re going to take a more tactical approach on January 11. This, however, doesn’t mean the UFC Vegas co-main event will be a snooze fest.

On the contrary, we think the fight will be a banger, with the two exchanging punches and kicks throughout the 15 minutes, after which the judges will decide the winner.

Is Action-Man Ready for Action After a Foot Injury?

Chris “Action-Man” Curtis (31-11-1) fought twice last year. He defeated Marc-Andre Barriault by a split decision in a striking spectacle that saw Curtis break his UFC record for most strikes in a fight (140).

In his second fight of the year, he lost to Brendan Allen by a split decision. He landed more strikes than him, but Allen made six successful takedowns.

Curtis was supposed to fight again in October (against Kevin Holland) but was forced to withdraw after fracturing his foot. Fast-forward to January 11 and he’s supposed to fight Roman Kopylov, a guy who might be his worst matchup right now.

Not only does Kopylov match Curtis’ striking ability, but he’s superior when it comes to wrestling. If it weren’t for the foot injury, Curtis would probably stand a chance, but this way, we just cannot see him winning.

UFC Vegas Predictions for All Fights

• Mackenzie Dern to Beat Amanda Ribas
• Santiago Ponzinibbio vs. Carlston Harris – Fight to Go the Distance
• Cesar Almeida to Beat Abdul Razak Alhassan
• Roman Kopylov to Beat Chris Curtis
• Christian Rodriguez to Beat Austin Bashi
• Punahele Soriano to Beat Uros Medic
• Jose Johnson to Beat Felipe Bunes
• Marco Tulio to Beat Ihor Potieria
• Thiago Moses to Beat Trey Ogden
• Jacobe Smith to Beat Preston Parsons
• Ernesta Kareckaite to Beat Nicolle Caliari
• Magomed Gadzhiyasulov to Beat Bruno Lopes
• Victoria Dudakova to Beat Fatima Kline
• Nurullo Aliev to Beat Joe Solecki

In most fights, we think favorites will win, but there are some notable exceptions. In the UFC Vegas headliner, we think Dern will win. We also think Christian Rodriguez will beat Austin Bashi, and former heavyweight Punahele Soriano should do okay against Uros Medic in their welterweight clash.

The only fight in which we think the fighters have an equal chance of winning is the Santiago Ponzinibbio vs. Carlston Harris fight. It’s really a coin-toss in our eyes, but if we had to pick one, we’d go with Harris.

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